Saxo Bank: The long-term positive pattern for gold remains unchanged, the next upward trend "just awaits the favorable wind."
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that gold still has upside potential, but the timing for a rally is difficult to determine. Since reaching a record high on October 20, gold futures have fallen nearly 8%. Market sentiment has shifted from exuberance to caution, with investors focusing on the upcoming U.S. ADP employment data and ISM Purchasing Managers' Index. Although concerns have been raised regarding China's VAT adjustments, analysts believe the short-term impact on gold prices will be limited. On Monday, gold futures slightly rose, closing at $4,000.30 per ounce
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, reported on Monday that gold futures have fallen nearly 8% since reaching a historical high of $4,359.40 per ounce on October 20, with market sentiment shifting "from exuberance to caution." The market is currently reassessing whether the numerous favorable factors for gold in 2025—such as uncertainty in U.S. trade policy and strong central bank demand for gold—are fully reflected in futures prices. However, Hansen speculates that gold still has further upside potential, although the timing for a breakout is difficult to determine.
He stated, "The current pullback in gold seems more like a brief consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Weak seasonal demand, short-term disruptions from Chinese policies, and a stronger dollar are the reasons for the short-term decline, but these factors have not changed the long-term positive outlook."
It is understood that relevant Chinese authorities announced over the weekend that some retailers will no longer be able to fully deduct value-added tax after purchasing gold from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
As the world's largest gold consumer, this tax adjustment in China has raised concerns among some analysts, who believe it may affect global market sentiment. However, Dan Ghali from TD Securities pointed out that China's wholesale gold demand in the last quarter was already 28% lower than the five-year average, and "demand for gold from Chinese end consumers has been sluggish for months, so this adjustment to the value-added tax exemption policy may not immediately impact gold prices."
On Monday, gold futures rose slightly, marking the third day of gains in the past four trading days, reclaiming the $4,000 per ounce level. Investors are currently awaiting the U.S. ADP employment data to be released on Wednesday, as well as the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to be published this week, in search of clues regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Due to the U.S. government shutdown, which has led to the suspension of key economic data releases by agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, analysts believe this has created a cautious market atmosphere characterized by "wait-and-see rather than action."
On Monday, the main contract for gold futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.4% to $4,000.30 per ounce; meanwhile, the main contract for silver futures for the same delivery period fell 0.2% to $47.888 per ounce
