Supply concentration + nuclear energy supercycle = a multi-year "uranium bull market"

The global nuclear energy revival wave is pushing uranium to the starting point of a multi-year bull market.

On November 4th, according to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Barclays stated in its latest research report that the uranium market is experiencing a structural supply-demand imbalance. Driven by both geopolitical risks and a nuclear energy supercycle, the conditions for a multi-year uranium bull market have matured. The current market landscape exhibits two core characteristics: an extremely concentrated supply side and a surging demand side, both pointing towards a multi-year uranium bull market.

The report states that the geographical concentration of uranium supply creates significant geopolitical risks. Kazakhstan alone accounts for nearly 40% of global uranium production, while Russia controls about 40% of uranium processing and enrichment capacity. This concentration of the supply chain, in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions, is forcing countries to reassess the security of uranium supply.

At the same time, the growth momentum on the demand side comes from the full launch of the nuclear energy supercycle. The World Nuclear Association predicts that global uranium demand will surge from 175 million pounds in 2024 to 391 million pounds in 2040, an increase of 124%. The restart of nuclear energy in the United States, the expansion of nuclear power in China, and the rise of small modular reactors together constitute the core driving forces behind this demand growth.

Barclays emphasizes that market pricing has begun to reflect this trend. The global uranium index has risen 60% so far this year, significantly outperforming the 19% increase in global stock indices. U.S. uranium-related companies have performed particularly well, with Cameco up 108% and Centrus Energy soaring 487%, showing investors' high recognition of the opportunities in supply chain restructuring.

Highly Concentrated Supply Pattern: The "Sword of Damocles" of Geopolitics

The geographical concentration of the uranium supply chain is becoming the biggest bottleneck facing the nuclear energy revival. Barclays states that the greatest risk in the current uranium market stems from the dual high concentration on the supply side, making it highly susceptible to geopolitical risk events. According to the bank's analysis:

Geographical and Corporate Concentration: Nearly 40% of global uranium mining is concentrated in Kazakhstan. From a corporate perspective, the top five companies, including Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom, Canada's Cameco, and France's Orano, collectively control 70% of global uranium production, further exacerbating supply risks.

Vulnerability in the Processing Stage: Risks also exist in the midstream. About 40% of global uranium conversion and enrichment capacity is located in Russia. This means that Western countries are heavily reliant on their geopolitical adversaries in the critical nuclear fuel processing stage.

The Huge Risk Exposure of the United States: The United States is the most vulnerable market globally. It consumes over 25% of the world's uranium to maintain the largest nuclear power capacity, yet its domestic production accounts for less than 1% of the global total

Despite the United States passing legislation in May 2024 requiring utility companies to eliminate reliance on Russian supplies by 2028, approximately one-fifth of enriched uranium still depends on imports from Russia. This significant supply-demand mismatch makes the U.S. efforts to ensure energy security exceptionally fragile.

Structural Supply Shortage: Nuclear Supercycle Drives Demand Surge

The World Nuclear Association predicts that by 2040, the uranium demand for nuclear reactors will grow from 175 million pounds in 2024 to 391 million pounds, an increase of 124%.

Barclays points out that, in stark contrast to the fragile supply side, uranium demand is experiencing explosive growth. This is primarily reflected in the following three aspects:

Demand Growth Drivers: Recent demand is mainly driven by the expansion of nuclear power plants in China and the restart of nuclear power plants in the United States. In the long term, small modular reactors (SMRs), expected to be commercially deployed in the early 2030s, will become a new major growth point.

Supply Slow to Respond: Uranium supply is price inelastic. Due to long exploration cycles, high capital investment, and numerous licensing and approval barriers, it typically takes over ten years for a new uranium mine to go from discovery to production.

Supply Gap Approaching: According to Bloomberg's forecasting model, even considering existing inventories, the global uranium market may enter a supply deficit as early as 2032. This structural supply-demand imbalance lays a solid foundation for a uranium bull market in the coming years.

Policy Support Accelerates Supply Chain Restructuring

Barclays states that in the face of increasingly severe supply security challenges, governments around the world are actively taking action to promote the localization of the uranium value chain, creating unprecedented development opportunities for related enterprises.

The U.S. Leads the Way: The actions of the U.S. government are the most notable. On March 20, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to accelerate domestic mineral production, explicitly listing uranium as a strategically important mineral and proposing the goal of "rebuilding domestic uranium fuel cycle control."

The four nuclear energy executive orders issued on May 23 further require increasing domestic nuclear power generation capacity fourfold by 2050 and instruct the Department of Energy to develop plans to expand domestic uranium mining, conversion, and enrichment.

The latest $80 billion Westinghouse cooperation agreement marks the concrete implementation of policy support. This agreement aims to build eight new nuclear power plants, driving the stock prices of related companies like Cameco to historic highs.

Market data shows that after Trump announced the nuclear energy executive orders on May 23, U.S. uranium companies experienced significant revaluation: Cameco rose 108% this year, Centrus Energy Corp soared 487%, and Uranium Energy Corp increased by 132%.

The EU's policy environment is also becoming supportive: The "Roadmap to Completely Eliminate Dependence on Russian Energy," released by the European Commission in May 2025, includes provisions for gradually phasing out uranium imports from Russia.

The Commission estimates that €241 billion in investment will be needed to support the extension of nuclear power and new projects. Sweden has officially proposed lifting the ban on uranium exploration and mining, indicating a shift in policy positions among individual member states