Hong Hao: Now is not the time to buy gold, the bubble has not yet been fully digested, Bitcoin should wait until the end of the third quarter next year

Renowned economist Hong Hao analyzed and forecasted the future trends of the A-share market, gold, and Bitcoin in the latest episode of "Hong Hao Strategy."

The representative of the investment workbook summarized the key points as follows:

1. Why is it destined that the A-share market will always remain within this range (2000-5000 points)?

People often say that the A-share market is a game of stock game, but the real reason is our capital account control issue. It results in all the funds participating in the market being sourced only from Chinese investors, and not from foreign investors.

1. A 50-year-old or 60-year-old person has a risk preference that is weaker than that of a 20-year-old.

There is profit-taking pressure; for example, I watch these (A-share) stocks every day and have not bought any. From a technical perspective, this is called a parabolic advance. The most likely outcome is a market trend similar to gold.

1. Gold has risen by 1000 dollars in a few weeks, while it took years to rise by 1000 dollars before; how is it possible for it to suddenly rise by 1000 dollars in just a few weeks?

It is impossible not to crash (collapse); it's like driving fast; if you drive too fast, you will definitely crash (have an accident), that is for sure.

So I think, of course, making money is good, but don't forget not to be too greedy; there are still many good investment opportunities.

1. As for gold, I think now is not the time. I believe that discussing when to buy back now means you believe the value bubble has ended and it has completely digested, which is impossible.

2. Bitcoin is approaching the peak of its four-year cycle; even if it reaches a new high, that new high will not be significantly above the current 11,500 dollars or the higher 12,500 dollars.

3. According to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin (halving every four years), the first year is a decline, and then the next two years are increases.

So I will wait, and that means waiting until the end of the third quarter next year. (After halving) is a buying opportunity, but no one knows the specific time, rather than looking at the points.

Hong Hao's sharing of views was frank, providing clear judgments on the trends of the A-share market, Bitcoin, and gold, with a high density of information.

Below is the essence compiled by the representative of the investment workbook (WeChat ID: touzizuoyeben), shared with everyone:

Why does the A-share market always stay within the range of 2000-5000 points?

The main question is whether the A-share market can break through this trading range. Why can the US stock market continuously rise and reach new highs?

Why is it that the A-share market seems destined to remain within this range? I think this is unreasonable. This is mainly because people often say that the A-share market is a game of stock game.

In fact, many people do not understand the real reason why the A-share market does not break through previous highs. This is mainly due to the issue of capital account control.

This leads to all the market funds participating only coming from domestic investors, and not from foreign investors. Our capital market is not open, and our capital account is not opened.

So QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) has been around for so many years, but the amount that has flowed into the A-share market is probably less than 20%.

The second point is the issue of old and new investors. Old investors in the A-share market have a perception that has been shaped over 30 years, right? Their perception is that the A-share market is at 5000 points, and the bottom is at 2000 points, so they keep trading back and forth between 2000 points and 5000 points.

However, I believe that old investors have not seized the opportunity of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the opportunities in emerging industries.

Many old investors still ask me whether liquor is good or not? Should they buy real estate? It’s not that there are no trading opportunities in these sectors, but in a long-term downward trend, it will be very difficult.

Because once you enter, you have to think about when to exit. So it’s not that there are no opportunities, but in a long-term downward trend, trying to trade its rebounds will be exhausting.

Long-term, truly long-term investors are less likely to consider such strongly cyclical sectors.

Some stocks in the A-share market show technical patterns that warn of risks

I think young people have a stronger risk tolerance. Because they are young, they can make more mistakes, and they have the conditions to make more mistakes; it’s okay to make a mistake and try again.

But if you reach 50 or 60 years old and say you made a mistake, starting over may not be an option.

Because in a person's life, reaching seventy is rare, and fifty is when one knows their fate. So I think there are many reasons for this. Everyone's risk preference is different; a 50-year-old or 60-year-old will have a weaker risk preference than a 20-year-old There is no way, it is determined by the hormones in the body, and this is also the cycle of our lives. There is no way.

There is pressure to take profits, so I watch these stocks (like Yi Zhongtian) every day, but I haven't bought any. Because, from a technical perspective, this is called parabolic advance. The easiest thing it can produce is a market similar to gold.

Gold rises 1000 in a few weeks, the surge is too rapid like driving fast, easy to have accidents

But gold has risen $1000 in a few weeks (before), it took years to rise $1000, and then suddenly it went up, rising $1000 in a few weeks, how is that possible?

Right? It is impossible not to crash, just like driving fast, if you drive too fast, you will definitely crash, there is no doubt about it.

So I think, of course, making money is good, but don't forget, don't be too greedy, there are many good investment opportunities.

Now is not the time for gold, the bubble has not been fully digested

As for gold, I think now is not the time. I think if you are discussing when to buy back now, then you are believing that the value bubble has ended and it has completely digested, which is impossible.

It has only dropped 10%, I think a serious bubble can first drop one-third, rebound, and then drop one-third again, that is how it is digested.

So I think there are many seemingly plausible statements. When the price was rising before, they didn't understand, and when it goes down, you shouldn't believe them because they have no clue.

If you think it is a bubble burst, then it is below $2000.

So this judgment is very important, you need to judge whether its upward logic has been completed, or if it is a significant pullback in an upward trend, and it will rise again afterwards.

But I cannot make this judgment right now.

Now is not the time to enter Bitcoin, I will wait until the end of the third quarter next year

Bitcoin is approaching the peak of a four-year cycle, so I think even if there is a new high, it will not be significantly higher than what we see now, which is about $115,000, previously it seemed to have reached $125,000. I think it will be about that this year. I won't argue about that $10,000 To be honest, according to a four-year cycle, generally speaking, the first year of the four-year cycle is a decline, followed by two years of growth.

So I will wait, and that means waiting until the end of the third quarter next year. I think one of the most important characteristics of a good investor is not only that he thinks diligently but more importantly, he can endure loneliness.

Yes, if you rush in now, because price liquidity is very strong, everyone thinks the central bank will ease, but its algorithm and cycle remain unchanged, it’s four years, and every four years it halves.

Bitcoin will certainly experience a significant correction, and (after the halving) is a buying opportunity, but no one knows the specific timing, rather than looking at the price points.

Source: Investment Workbook Pro Author: Wang Li

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