Eli Lilly's new weight loss drug reduces weight by over 20% and plans to cooperate with the White House to expand Medicare coverage

Eli Lilly is consolidating its leading position in the weight loss drug market through a dual approach of new drug development and policy collaboration.

On November 6, Eli Lilly announced that its experimental weight loss drug eloralintide helped patients lose up to 20.1% of their weight in mid-term trials and will initiate late-stage clinical trials next month.

Meanwhile, it has been reported that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are discussing an agreement with the White House to lower the prices of their best-selling weight loss drugs in exchange for broader insurance coverage. Investors expect the White House agreement to expand the coverage of these GLP-1 weight loss drugs, which are priced over $1,000 per month, under the U.S. Medicare and Medicaid programs.

This initiative is a key pillar of President Trump's healthcare policy during his second term. By bypassing pharmacy benefit managers, the TrumpRx platform aims to reduce costs and expand drug accessibility. Several pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer and AstraZeneca, have signed related agreements.

Analysts point out that this pricing framework may be more favorable for Eli Lilly. BMO Capital analyst Evan Seigerman stated that Eli Lilly's dominant position in the GLP-1 field continues to deepen, with doctors and patients increasingly favoring its drugs, and potential collaboration with the Trump administration's consumer-facing TrumpRx platform may further accelerate Eli Lilly's growth momentum.

New Generation Weight Loss Drugs Show Strong Efficacy

Eli Lilly's experimental drug eloralintide is a new type of weight loss drug that mimics incretin, a pancreatic hormone that slows digestion and suppresses hunger.

In the mid-term trial, patients receiving the highest dose of 9 mg lost 20.1% or 21.3 kg over 48 weeks, while those receiving the 1 mg dose lost 9.5% or 10.2 kg, and the placebo group lost only 0.2 kg.

The study included 263 overweight adults with at least one obesity-related complication but without type 2 diabetes.

Trial data showed that this once-weekly injectable drug also improved waist circumference, blood pressure, lipid levels, blood sugar control, and inflammatory markers.

The most common side effects were mild to moderate gastrointestinal symptoms and fatigue, which were more frequent in the high-dose group, while the group with gradually increased doses experienced fewer side effects.

Kenneth Custer, president of Eli Lilly's cardiovascular metabolic health division, stated that data shows eloralintide has strong efficacy and better tolerability, making it a potential alternative to incretin therapy.

The drug is currently undergoing mid-term trials for both standalone use and in combination with Eli Lilly's best-selling GLP-1 drug tirzepatide (brand name Zepbound).

Pricing Agreement May Strengthen Eli Lilly's Market Advantage

Currently, there are only two effective GLP-1 weight loss drugs on the market: Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, primarily sold in the U.S. market as weekly injections.

Both drugs are priced over $1,000 per month but offer a price of $499 per month for self-paying buyers. Novo Nordisk was the first to enter the market, but Eli Lilly's Zepbound is quickly catching up Deutsche Bank analysts believe that this agreement could become a catalyst for Eli Lilly's growth.

The bank expects that the $150 monthly price cap could provide drug accessibility for up to 15 million Americans, primarily covering about 20% of obese adults with injection phobia, and Eli Lilly's upcoming oral GLP-1 drug Orforglipron may capture this market segment.

Deutsche Bank analysts stated that the lower cost of Orforglipron could provide the company with flexibility in the short term, quickly reaching or exceeding the 2.7 million patient count of Zepbound currently in the U.S. This analysis is based on the expectation that the expansion of government coverage will offset any declines in net pricing.

Oral Formulation Race Accelerates

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are competing to bring their best-selling GLP-1 drugs' oral versions to market.

Novo Nordisk's once-daily oral Wegovy is under review by the U.S. FDA, with a decision expected by the end of 2025, while Eli Lilly's Orforglipron plans to submit a regulatory application by the end of 2025, potentially launching in 2026.

The first-generation dominant weight-loss drugs primarily target the gut hormone GLP-1, but pharmaceutical companies are now seeking to target other hormones or develop next-generation drugs that help maintain muscle mass during fat loss. Large pharmaceutical companies like Roche and AbbVie have signed agreements to acquire development rights for experimental amylin drugs.

Analysts point out that the current landscape of the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market is being reshaped. Drug pricing has been a core focus of Trump's second-term agenda, and the launch of direct-to-consumer channels marks a significant shift in the distribution of healthcare in the U.S