Gaode makes a high-profile entry into the Robotaxi market

Author | Chai Xuchen

Editor | Wang Xiaojun

Under the strategic tilt of the entire Alibaba Group, AutoNavi continues to make bold moves.

On November 5th, AutoNavi announced a partnership with XPeng, with XPeng's Robotaxi set to integrate into the AutoNavi platform to jointly provide users with L4-level autonomous driving travel services. On the same day at the XPeng Technology Day, XPeng Chairman He Xiaopeng announced that three L4-level Robotaxi models would be launched next year.

The "perfect match" is not just a strategic announcement; both parties have thrown out a timeline. He Xiaopeng stated that their Robotaxi will begin trial operations next year in multiple cities including Guangzhou. AutoNavi CEO Guo Ning proposed a more ambitious goal—both parties will go overseas in the future, bringing Robotaxi services to the global market.

Clearly, AutoNavi and XPeng are determined to rapidly integrate the "future technology" of Robotaxi into everyone's daily life. Internally, AutoNavi may have already defined the Robotaxi business as a strategic-level initiative, which could become a new growth engine for the company in the future.

It is worth mentioning that when Robotaxi first appeared, many people merely viewed it as a technological performance. Even a year ago, when Elon Musk personally launched the Cybercab, most people saw it only as a way to boost Tesla's stock price.

However, unlike previous "storytelling" attempts, Robotaxi is quickly moving towards large-scale commercialization. In addition to Baidu's Apollo Go, more pragmatic giants are beginning to enter the field.

In September, Hello Chuxing, CATL, and Ant Group jointly launched the pre-installed mass-produced Robotaxi—HelloRobot1, piloting 200 vehicles in Zhuzhou, Hunan, with plans to achieve a deployment of 10,000 vehicles by 2026. In October, DiDi Autonomous Driving announced that its driverless ride-hailing service has entered the demonstration application phase, aiming to launch Robotaxi services in multiple regions by the end of next year.

As the core carrier of Geely's intelligent driving business, Qianli Technology also officially disclosed its autonomous driving roadmap earlier this month, planning to provide large-scale Robotaxi operation services in 10 cities worldwide within the next 18 months, with over 1,000 Robotaxis deployed in a single city.

The driving forces behind this are the decrease in unit costs, loosening of policies and regulations, and breakthroughs in operational efficiency, with scale effects and gross margins beginning to emerge.

Currently, the costs of lidar, computing platforms, and domain control chips have significantly decreased. Pony AI's prospectus disclosed that its seventh-generation platform's BOM cost has reduced by about 70% compared to the previous generation, with the market expecting its vehicle cost to drop to 200,000 yuan per vehicle. It is important to note that the early cost of a modified Robotaxi was approximately 450,000 yuan.

On the other hand, the iteration of intelligent driving technology is accelerating under the impetus of AI large models. Star players in the Robotaxi space, such as WeRide and Pony AI, have mentioned that data reuse allows them to provide rapid expansion capabilities for different cities, with inter-city migration cycles shortened to a matter of weeks After several years of development, the technology of Robotaxi has become increasingly mature, and support from various regions has also grown stronger. Since last year, multiple cities have begun to relax the pilot scope and operating hours for Robotaxi. Shenzhen was the first to issue "citywide" autonomous driving commercial operation licenses to certain companies.

When technology is no longer the only moat, the dawn of commercialization gradually emerges.

Goldman Sachs bluntly stated that China, due to its large electric vehicle ownership, technological innovation, and policy support, is seen as a key engine for the development of autonomous driving. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of Robotaxi operating vehicles in China will exceed 500,000, and by 2035, the market size of Robotaxi in China will rise to $47 billion.

It can be said that the economic equation of Robotaxi is finally close to being solved. However, the entire industry is plagued by high operating costs and the commercialization dilemma of "supply and demand mismatch."

Dongfang Securities estimates that in cities like Wuhan, the monthly revenue per Robotaxi is about 20,000 yuan, with operational and maintenance costs around 16,000 yuan. After deducting fixed expenses such as vehicle depreciation and insurance, the loss rate is about 20%, nearing the breakeven point. Only if the vehicles operate for more than 10 hours a day on average, and the fleet size exceeds 500 vehicles with an average daily order volume surpassing 5,000 orders, can they potentially enter a positive cash flow zone.

Clearly, this places higher demands on the operational efficiency of Robotaxi companies.

Companies like Baidu and DiDi began to venture into Robotaxi operations early on but insisted on building their own channels. These companies have accumulated hundreds of millions of active users in the C-end internet market and have chosen a closed model for ecological operations, attempting to seize the market with self-operated Robotaxi vehicles.

Robotaxi players are about to face fierce competition from Baidu's "full-stack model," DiDi's "self-operated + platform," and technology giants like Waymo. However, not all Robotaxi players can build their own vertical empires like the former.

How to effectively operate C-end services has become the biggest challenge facing various Robotaxi companies. At this critical moment when the industry urgently needs "disruptors," "outsider" Amap has boldly entered the market, transforming itself into an aggregation platform for Robotaxi.

In 2017, Amap pioneered the aggregation ride-hailing model in the ride-hailing industry. It has become the largest aggregation ride-hailing platform in China through open development. For the entire industry, Amap, which does not manufacture vehicles, may be an ideal "greatest common divisor" Robotaxi platform.

He Xiaopeng stated that once we improve the operational capabilities of Robotaxi and collaborate ecologically, we are not looking at hundreds or thousands of Robotaxi; we expect tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of Robotaxi.

On the other hand, Amap also has its own anxieties—when the comprehensive operating costs of Robotaxi fall below those of "human drivers," the existing travel landscape will face reconstruction. If other self-built Robotaxi fleet platforms (such as Baidu, DiDi, or Geely and other OEMs) achieve scaled capacity, Amap's competitiveness will also be diluted It can be said that Gaode's entry is also to secure its "ticket" in the future mobility field. At the same time, the user capital accumulated over the years and resources covering more than 200 countries and regions around the world can finally welcome the moment of monetization.

Moreover, it is important to note that Gaode is backed by the entire Alibaba ecosystem. Gaode's Robotaxi platform will build a future urban transportation network covering both "people flow" and "logistics" in conjunction with Cainiao's unmanned delivery scenarios and local life services like Ele.me.

Perhaps Gaode's true ambition is to become the "Android" of the autonomous driving era, a "mobility operating system" that defines industry standards and connects billions of terminals. With the support of the Alibaba system, this new story seems not far from realization