Bernstein gives XPeng a "Market Perform" rating with a target price of 82 yuan

Bernstein's research report points out that XPeng (09868.HK)(XPEV.US) showcased the latest advancements in its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) technology during its XPeng Technology Day and announced the product launch roadmap for its Robotaxi, humanoid robot, and electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL), aiming to launch the Robotaxi and mass-produce its second-generation IRON humanoid robot by 2026, as well as begin deliveries of the eVTOL.

Bernstein stated that compared to competitors such as Waymo, Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai (02026.HK), and WeRide (00800.HK), XPeng's advantage in Robotaxi lies in its lower manufacturing costs and large-scale data collection capabilities. Bernstein estimates that thanks to in-house production, self-developed AI chips, and a pure vision solution similar to Tesla's, XPeng can reduce the manufacturing cost of each vehicle to below RMB 200,000. In contrast, Waymo's Robotaxi is estimated to cost around USD 100,000, Pony.ai around RMB 300,000, and Baidu Apollo around RMB 245,000. XPeng's existing large-scale on-road fleet also provides a data advantage, which is crucial for optimizing autonomous driving software.

Bernstein indicated that although the Robotaxi is planned for mass production in 2026, it will still need to undergo certification and accumulate safety mileage before obtaining a fully autonomous operating license, which may not happen until 2027 or later. Therefore, Bernstein does not expect this to have a substantial impact on XPeng's financial situation in the next 12 to 24 months. That said, Bernstein acknowledges that this progress fully demonstrates XPeng's technological strength and helps enhance XPeng's brand image.

Considering that Bernstein expects the company's losses to continue for several years, based on a 1x 2026 forecast enterprise value (EV)/sales multiple and taking into account stronger sales momentum, the target price for XPeng's U.S. stock is set at USD 21, with a target price of HKD 82 for its Hong Kong stock, rating it "in line with the market."