Why Upstart Holdings (UPST) Cut Its 2025 Revenue Outlook Despite Profit Gains—And What Comes Next
Upstart Holdings reported Q3 2025 results with $277.11 million in revenue and $31.81 million in net income, but cut its full-year revenue guidance to $1.03 billion. Despite profit growth, the lowered outlook highlights revenue sensitivity to macroeconomic changes. The company is expanding partnerships, notably with Peak Credit Union, to enhance loan originations. Analysts project $1.8 billion in revenue by 2028, requiring 27.2% annual growth. Fair value estimates for UPST range from $21.91 to $85, indicating differing investor outlooks amid macro volatility.
- Upstart Holdings recently reported its third-quarter 2025 results, showing US$277.11 million in revenue and US$31.81 million in net income, alongside decreased full-year revenue guidance to about US$1.03 billion and expected net income of US$50 million.
- Despite profit and transaction volume growth, the company's lowered revenue outlook and guidance updates stand out amid continued product expansion and new partnerships.
- Next, we'll look at how Upstart's reduced revenue guidance and profit growth could influence its investment narrative and medium-term outlook.
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Upstart Holdings Investment Narrative Recap
To be a shareholder in Upstart Holdings, you need to believe in the company's ability to drive growth through AI-powered lending models and scalable partnerships, while maintaining disciplined credit performance. The recent Q3 results offered strong profit and transaction volume growth, but the reduced full-year revenue guidance brings heightened attention to the sensitivity of Upstart’s revenue and margins to macroeconomic shifts, a key short-term catalyst and the biggest risk for the business, with a material impact due to the guidance adjustment.
Among recent announcements, the expanded partnership with Peak Credit Union stands out, as it aligns closely with Upstart’s push to boost loan originations and grow its referral network, a top catalyst for driving revenue and increasing lending partner confidence, especially amid tighter macro conditions and more cautious outlooks for revenue growth.
In contrast, investors should be aware of how macro volatility and tighter credit conditions could cause larger swings than expected in quarterly financials...
Read the full narrative on Upstart Holdings (it's free!)
Upstart Holdings' narrative projects $1.8 billion in revenue and $337.2 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 27.2% yearly revenue growth and a $343.6 million increase in earnings from the current -$6.4 million.
Uncover how Upstart Holdings' forecasts yield a $74.69 fair value, a 94% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
Sixteen Simply Wall St Community members estimate Upstart’s fair value to range from US$21.91 to US$85, reflecting wide differences in outlook. With profit growth now facing more scrutiny after guidance was cut, consider how changing macro risks might affect your assessment before weighing in with your own view.
Explore 16 other fair value estimates on Upstart Holdings - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!
Build Your Own Upstart Holdings Narrative
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
- A great starting point for your Upstart Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
- Our free Upstart Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Upstart Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
