In "Major Banks," CICC lists the predicted changes in fund flows for individual stocks with significant increases and decreases in weight during the quarterly review of the MSCI China Index (Table)

MSCI Index Company announced last Thursday (6th) the replacement of MSCI China Index constituents, adding 26 stocks and removing 20 stocks, with the changes effective after the market close on November 24th. The 9 newly added stocks listed in Hong Kong include China Gold International (02099.HK), ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK), UBTECH (09880.HK), Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK), Dongfeng Group (00489.HK), Crystal International (02228.HK), China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK), Rongchang Biologics (09995.HK), and GF Securities (01776.HK). The 4 stocks removed from the Hong Kong listing include CEB BANK (06818.HK), Beijing Enterprises Water Group (00371.HK), AVIC Trust (00696.HK), and China Resources Pharmaceutical (03320.HK).

In addition to the constituent adjustments, MSCI also adjusted the free float factors (FIF, Foreign Inclusion Factor) for 19 companies and the number of shares included for 142 companies, which will also lead to changes in the weight of constituents within the index. In terms of potential impact, CICC focuses on the positive effects on Dongfeng, China Gold International, and GF Securities; and the negative effects on Beijing Enterprises Water Group, China Resources Pharmaceutical, and CEB Bank.

From the perspective of absolute weight changes, CICC estimates that the newly included China Gold International, ZIJIN GOLD INTL, UBTECH, and Ganfeng Lithium will see significant weight increases, ranging from 0.13% to 0.09%. Conversely, Tencent (00700.HK), Alibaba-W (09988.HK), Kuaishou-W (01024.HK), and CEB BANK will experience the largest declines in index weight due to dilution or removal, ranging from 0.23% to 0.05%.

The bank listed the predicted capital changes for stocks with significant increases and decreases in quarterly review weights:

(1) Stocks expected to see significant weight increases

Stock│Weight Change│Estimated Passive Fund Flow

China Gold International (02099.HK)│0.129%│Inflow of $187 million

ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)│0.12%│Inflow of $173 million

UBTECH (09880.HK)│0.116%│Inflow of $167 million

Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK)│0.093%│Inflow of $134 million

Dongfeng Group (00489.HK)│0.092%│Inflow of $133.6 million

Crystal International (02228.HK)│0.083%│Inflow of $120 million

China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK)│0.079%│Inflow of $115 million

Rongchang Biologics (09995.HK)│0.08%│Inflow of $109 million GF Securities (01776.HK)│0.07%│Inflow of USD 100 million

Lenovo Group (00992.HK)│0.058%│Inflow of USD 83.7 million

(2) Expected stocks with significant weight reduction

Tencent (00700.HK)│-0.231%│Outflow of USD 334 million

Alibaba-W (09988.HK)│-0.137%│Outflow of USD 198 million

Kuaishou-W (01024.HK)│-0.061%│Outflow of USD 88.1 million

CEB Bank (06818.HK)│-0.047%│Outflow of USD 68.1 million

Beijing Enterprises Water Group (00371.HK)│-0.045%│Outflow of USD 65.4 million

JD.com-SW (09618.HK)│-0.043%│Outflow of USD 62.5 million

China Aviation Trust (00696.HK)│-0.043%│Outflow of USD 61.5 million

China Resources Pharmaceutical (03320.HK)│-0.041%│Outflow of USD 60 million

China Construction Bank (00939.HK)│-0.04%│Outflow of USD 57.6 million

Pinduoduo (PDD.US)│-0.038%│Outflow of USD 54.9 million

Meituan-W (03690.HK)│-0.025%│Outflow of USD 36.2 million