Even if the U.S. government "reopens" this week, will the Federal Reserve not have access to "key data" before the December decision?

Even though the U.S. government shutdown stalemate is expected to end this week, the economic data "black hole" it has created is unlikely to be filled in the short term, which may lead the Federal Reserve to enter the December meeting without key guidance.

Currently, the market generally expects that once the government reopens, the backlog of September economic reports will be released quickly, but the more critical data for October and November is facing serious delays.

Economists predict that after the government resumes operations, the delayed September employment report may be released within three days. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, noted that the report was "basically ready" before the shutdown.

However, due to the shutdown hindering the surveys, collection, and processing for October, the production of economic data for that month will be more difficult, potentially leading to longer release delays and higher margins of error.

Key Inflation Data May Miss Meeting Window

Regarding the timeline for the release of data that the market is highly focused on, Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, predicts that the employment reports for October and November may be released on December 8, just before the Federal Reserve meeting.

However, he expects that the retail sales and inflation data for October will not be published until around December 18, by which time the Fed meeting will have already concluded.

He also cautioned that the duration of this shutdown is more than twice that of 2013, making historical experience of limited reference value.

This longest government shutdown in history, which began on October 1, has severely impacted the release of economic data for multiple months.

Data "Fog" Clouds Decision-Making, Fed May Become More Cautious

The data vacuum directly affects policy clarity. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk stated that data uncertainty is one of the many reasons the Federal Reserve feels "a bit nervous" about adjusting monetary policy.

This confirms Powell's earlier statement: "In the fog, you slow down." Maurine Haver, founder and CEO of Haver Analytics, also predicts that statistical agencies may have to rely more on estimation models than usual when calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and November.

This situation of data absence poses a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, which relies on data for decision-making. Officials, including Fed Chair Powell, have expressed concerns about the lack of official economic data in recent months, which directly affects the formulation of monetary policy and has left the market in a "fog" when assessing economic trends.

Although private sector data has provided some reference during the shutdown, its reliability is far from that of official benchmarks