The NASDAQ index recorded its largest daily gain since May, but the "reopening" of the U.S. government has both advantages and disadvantages

The record-breaking government shutdown in the United States is expected to come to an end, a prospect that has driven a broad rebound in the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite Index recording its largest single-day gain since May.

However, while the market feels relieved by the easing of the political deadlock, it must also prepare for the impending flood of economic data and potential market volatility following the government's "reopening."

On Monday, Wall Street stocks surged, fueled by optimism. The U.S. Senate passed a key procedural vote on Sunday night, clearing the way for measures to end the shutdown, which the market reacted positively to. Although the agreement has not been finalized, the measure is expected to be sent to the Republican-led House of Representatives for further consideration.

The market's sense of relief is evident, especially after the tech sector faced a sell-off last week. The NASDAQ Composite Index rose 2.3% on Monday, marking its largest single-day percentage gain since May 27. The S&P 500 Index increased by 1.54%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.81%.

This round of gains is a reversal of the negative impacts that accumulated during the shutdown. As federal employees missed paychecks and flight cancellations began to take effect, the emergence of a solution was seen as a significant positive by the market. However, analysts warn that the resumption of government operations is not without risks, as a series of delayed economic data is set to be released, which could trigger new uncertainties.

Tech Stocks Lead Market Rally

Monday's market rebound was led by tech stocks. After experiencing their worst weekly performance since the tariff turmoil in April, the tech sector rebounded strongly. According to FactSet data, the information technology and communication services sectors of the S&P 500 Index recorded daily gains of 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively, on Monday.

Specifically, chip stocks, including Micron and TSMC, as well as companies in the "Magnificent Seven" such as Alphabet, NVIDIA, and Tesla, saw their stock prices rise. According to The Wall Street Journal, other assets also experienced broad gains, with gold futures and U.S. Treasury yields rising, and Bitcoin prices increasing, which boosted cryptocurrency-sensitive stocks like Robinhood and Coinbase.

Sameer Samana, head of global equity and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, stated that the economic impact of the shutdown "has not changed the market's relatively positive backdrop."

Data Fog Will Clear, But Volatility May Arise

The end of the government shutdown means that the "fog" of economic data is about to lift, but this could itself become a catalyst for market volatility. Investors have not received the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' non-farm payroll report for two consecutive months and have had to rely on data from private sources. Once the government resumes operations, a large backlog of data, including the September employment report, may be released all at once.

"You have to be cautious about what you expect," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management. "What I am most concerned about is whether we will see signs of recent corporate layoff announcements becoming more common?" Despite significant slowing in job growth, the unemployment rate recently recorded at 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, investors have been hopeful that the job market can remain stable.

Jack McIntyre, fixed income portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, also expressed concerns about the quality of the data. He stated, "The data will still be chaotic. I'm not sure when we will get it, and I'm not sure about its quality." This data is crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision in December on whether to implement the third interest rate cut of the year.

The "Show Me" Moment for Expensive AI Stocks

Despite the optimistic market sentiment on Monday, concerns about the overvaluation of tech stocks, particularly those related to artificial intelligence, have not dissipated. Scott Welch, Chief Investment Officer at Certuity Wealth Management, pointed out, "The market seems to finally be accepting the fact that large tech stocks are remarkable companies, but they are very, very expensive."

Welch believes that AI concept stocks are currently in a "show me" phase, with the market waiting for them to prove how they can convert massive AI spending into actual profits. Robert Pavlik also noted that the recent sell-off of AI-related stocks "released some heat," providing more entry opportunities for investors.

However, Welch cautioned that since about 10 tech stocks account for nearly 40% of the S&P 500 index's market value, any one stock facing issues such as performance setbacks could drag down the entire portfolio.

Investors Maintain a Cautiously Optimistic Attitude

Looking ahead, analysts hold a cautiously optimistic view for the year-end market. Sameer Samana stated that unless there is "panic" in the bond market leading to a surge in long-term yields again, he remains optimistic about the stock market at year-end. He summarized, "Don't lose your way; everything is on an upward trend."

For investors, this means that while seizing market opportunities, they also need to be prepared for potential volatility. Scott Welch advised clients, "Let's stay diversified and not try to capture every penny of profit."

He believes that as long as the portfolio is constructed reasonably, investors can weather the storm. Additionally, analysts mentioned that the tax cuts and other potential stimulus measures included in the Republican tax and spending bill should become a positive factor for the market by early 2026