Dr. Lisa Su: By 2030, the AI data center market size is expected to exceed 1 trillion, and AMD's revenue growth may exceed 35% annually

On Tuesday, November 11th, Eastern Time, during AMD's first-ever Financial Analyst Day event, AMD CEO Lisa Su provided an optimistic outlook for the artificial intelligence (AI) market, predicting accelerated sales growth for AMD over the next five years.

On Tuesday, Su stated that AMD expects the total addressable market (TAM) for AI data centers, including processors, accelerators, and networking products, to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, far surpassing this year's approximately $200 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40%. The latest TAM target. Wallstreetcn mentioned that in June of this year, Su indicated that the market size for AI processors is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2028.

Contrary to last year's expectations, Su stated that the demand for AI infrastructure will not stabilize this year but will continue to be robust. She noted that customer investments in AI have not "tended to stabilize." The demand for AI computing infrastructure remains unmet.

Similarly, differing from previous views, Su believes that the growth of AI and GPUs is increasing, rather than decreasing, the demand for CPUs. She stated that AI accelerators have not caused a decline in the CPU market.

During this event, Su mentioned that there are clear signs that AI workloads are shifting from training to inference. In June of this year, she stated at the Advancing AI 2025 conference that the AI accelerator sector is growing at a CAGR of over 60%, and that the market for inference chips "will grow even faster."

Su revealed that AMD expects its annual revenue CAGR to exceed 35% over the next three to five years, with revenue from AI data centers averaging an 80% growth. In contrast, analysts currently expect an average of 32% growth in AMD's annual sales this year, followed by growth of 31% and 39% in the subsequent two years—2026 and 2027, respectively.

During Su's speech, AMD's stock price, which had dropped over 3.8% when the U.S. stock market hit a daily low, rebounded to rise by about 2% at one point during the session, but the upward momentum could not be sustained, and it subsequently returned to a downward trend, closing down 2.65%, after rebounding over 4% on Monday.

As of the close on Monday, AMD's stock price has risen approximately 102% this year. Analysts believe that the surge in AMD's stock price this year is mainly due to the agreements signed by the company with OpenAI and Oracle, among others. These agreements validate the quality of AMD's products and indicate that its technology is expected to capture a share of the hundreds of billions of dollars in new data center investments

Last Tuesday after the US stock market closed, AMD announced its third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations with a year-on-year growth of 36% to $9.246 billion, and the revenue from its data center business grew 22% year-on-year to $4.3 billion, also surpassing expectations. However, AMD's fourth-quarter guidance was not particularly impressive.

AMD expects fourth-quarter revenue to be approximately $9.3 billion to $9.9 billion, with a midpoint of $9.6 billion. Although this is higher than the average analyst expectation of $9.2 billion, it is still below some analysts' optimistic forecast of $9.9 billion. AMD's fourth-quarter gross margin guidance is 54.5%, in line with analyst consensus expectations.

Dr. Lisa Su, during the earnings call, clarified the company's long-term AI revenue goals for the first time, expecting that by 2027, annual revenue from data center AI business will reach "hundreds of billions of dollars." She also disclosed that in the milestone collaboration with OpenAI, the first computing clusters based on the next-generation MI450 series accelerators will begin to go live in the second half of 2026.

However, these positive long-term outlooks, combined with the fourth-quarter revenue guidance that exceeded the average analyst expectations, still could not prevent AMD's stock price from falling more than 3% in after-hours trading on Tuesday.

At that time, media reports indicated that some investors had higher expectations for AMD, suggesting that the market believes AMD's returns from the AI boom may come slower than previously anticipated. The lukewarm response from investors to AMD's guidance of over 20% sales growth is attributed to the fact that most of the growth comes from personal computer (PC) and server processors, rather than the highly anticipated AI accelerator business.

During the call, Dr. Su faced repeated questions from analysts about when the growth of AI chips would "truly explode." The meeting also revealed a key piece of information: in the third quarter, AMD's traditional server business growth even slightly outpaced its much-anticipated AI chip division, contrasting sharply with the market's hot expectation of AMD as the "next Nvidia" in the AI field