The era of fossil fuels coming to an end as a "thing of the past"? IEA: Global oil and gas demand will continue to grow for another 25 years

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new report warning that if countries do not change their current energy policies, global demand for oil and natural gas will continue to rise over the next quarter-century, sounding the alarm for global climate goals.

On November 12, the IEA set a new forecast scenario called "Current Policies" in its latest report, "World Energy Outlook." The agency pointed out that if the world continues on its current trajectory, global demand for oil and natural gas will continue to grow over the next 25 years, and carbon dioxide emissions will not see a meaningful decline.

This forecast marks a significant shift in the IEA's stance. Previously, all of the agency's models assumed that fossil fuel consumption would peak within this decade, a view that has been fiercely rebutted by the oil and gas industry and the White House.

Decreasing Attention to Climate Change

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated, "The status of climate change on the international energy policy agenda is declining—and rapidly." He added that this is happening against the backdrop of "2024 becoming the hottest year on record."

The newly introduced "Current Policies scenario" takes into account the changing positions of countries on climate goals, the growing desire for secure and affordable energy, and the slowing growth rate of electric vehicles. Birol explained that this scenario means that energy and climate change policies will remain unchanged over the next 25 years, with no new policies introduced.

According to this new scenario, global oil demand will increase from approximately 100 million barrels per day in 2024 to 113 million barrels per day by 2050, with growth primarily driven by aviation, trucking, and the petrochemical industry. Meanwhile, the sales share of electric vehicles is expected to reach about 40% by 2035.

In contrast, under the IEA's "Stated Policies scenario" (which reflects policies that have been proposed but not yet legislated), oil demand is expected to peak at 102 million barrels per day by 2030, with half of the vehicles sold by 2035 being electric.

Policy Games Behind the Adjustments

The IEA's adjustment of its forecast model comes amid external pressures. Reports indicate that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly criticized the IEA's "peak oil" theory as "complete nonsense" in July and threatened to reform the agency or withdraw support.

However, the IEA stated that the introduction of the new scenario was not due to pressure from the U.S., but rather because there is "broader uncertainty" in this year's energy outlook, and the method has been discussed with all member governments, all of which expressed interest in multiple scenarios.

Simultaneous Surge in Electricity Demand

The report also emphasizes that the core of all forecast scenarios is the massive growth in electricity demand. By 2035, under both the "Current Policies" and "Announced Commitments" scenarios, electricity demand is expected to grow by about 40%.

Of this, as much as 80% of the growth in energy consumption will come from regions highly suitable for solar power generation, indicating that renewable energy will continue to experience significant growth