Goldman Sachs warns: In the next decade, the annualized return rate of U.S. stocks will only be 6.5%, lagging behind the world, while emerging markets may take the lead
Goldman Sachs' latest report issues a long-term warning for the U.S. stock market. Due to high valuations, the annualized return for U.S. stocks is expected to be only 6.5% over the next decade, ranking at the bottom among major global markets. In contrast, emerging markets, with strong earnings growth, are expected to achieve an annualized return of 10.9%, becoming a new investment highlight. Investors are advised to increase their allocation to markets outside the U.S
After experiencing a decade of bull market glory, the dominance of U.S. stocks is facing severe challenges. Goldman Sachs strategists have warned that U.S. stocks are expected to lag behind in performance among major global markets over the next decade, while emerging markets are set to lead globally with strong earnings growth.
On November 12, Goldman Sachs' Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer and his team stated that the high valuation of U.S. stocks will limit future earnings potential. The team predicts that the annualized return of the S&P 500 index over the next decade is expected to be only 6.5%, while emerging markets are expected to achieve an annualized return of 10.9%.
High Valuations Weighing on U.S. Stock Outlook
The core reason for Goldman Sachs' cautious stance on U.S. stocks lies in their persistently high valuations and unsustainable earnings growth. The report shows that the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has soared to 23 times, comparable to the peak during the internet bubble. Currently, the valuation premium of U.S. stocks relative to global peers has exceeded 50%.
The Peter Oppenheimer team analyzes that the key factors driving the surge in U.S. stocks over the past decade, including continuous margin expansion, declining tax rates, and a low-interest-rate environment, are unlikely to be replicated in the next decade. The fading of these structural advantages will significantly constrain the future performance of U.S. stocks.
Goldman Sachs' long-term pessimistic forecast for U.S. stocks has already begun to show signs in this year's market performance. Despite the ongoing tech stock and artificial intelligence boom, the S&P 500 index's 16% increase year-to-date has significantly lagged behind the MSCI All Country World Index (excluding the U.S.) which has surged by 27%.
As early as the beginning of last year, Peter Oppenheimer had warned about the issue of high valuations in U.S. stocks and suggested that investors shift their funds to international markets.
Emerging Markets Lead, Asia Shines
Goldman Sachs advises investors to increase their allocation to markets outside the U.S., particularly focusing on emerging markets. The report emphasizes:
“We expect higher nominal GDP growth and structural reforms to benefit emerging markets, while the long-term benefits of artificial intelligence should be broadly based and not limited to U.S. tech companies.”
Specifically, Goldman Sachs is particularly optimistic about the prospects for emerging markets and the Asia region. Among them, the Chinese and Indian markets are expected to become the main engines driving earnings growth in emerging markets. The Japanese market is expected to achieve an annualized return of 8.2% due to improvements in earnings and policy reforms, while the European market is expected to achieve 7.1%
