Oklo, IonQ, Coreweave, Bloom Energy... In the past month, these "quantum, AI, energy" stocks have already "dropped significantly."

The hype surrounding speculative themes such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and new energy is rapidly cooling.

Since mid-October, speculative stocks, including nuclear energy company Oklo, quantum computing companies IonQ and D-Wave Quantum, AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave, and energy technology company Bloom Energy, have seen their market values drop by approximately 33%.

Behind the market shift is the onset of the third-quarter earnings season. As companies begin to report tangible performance, investors are reassessing the high valuations of companies that have little or no relation to profitability.

According to FactSet data, as many as 82% of S&P 500 companies reported better-than-expected earnings, prompting funds to flow into fundamentally sound value stocks.

More importantly, even tech giants like Oracle are facing market skepticism regarding their debt repayment capabilities due to their exposure to "cash-burning" clients, signaling the end of the market's pricing fantasy that everything would be perfect for small companies on the fringes of the AI ecosystem.

The Sudden Brake on Speculation

A group of 13 stocks, including Oklo, D-Wave Quantum, CoreWeave, IonQ, Nebius, Cipher Mining, IREN, Rigetti Computing, Tempus AI, POET Technologies, Bloom Energy, Plug Power, and SoundHound AI, has averaged a decline of one-third since October 14.

Previously, these stocks had a wild performance from early July to mid-October, with an average increase of nearly 200%. However, the peak coincided with the start of the third-quarter earnings season. According to FactSet's John Butters, 82% of S&P 500 companies reported better-than-expected profits, and 77% exceeded revenue expectations.

This stark contrast has prompted investors to reassess their capital allocation logic. When large companies with solid fundamentals generally deliver impressive results, it becomes difficult to justify continuing to chase speculative targets with weak ties to profitability.

The flow of funds in the market confirms this shift in logic.

Since the peak of speculative stocks, the iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE) has risen by about 6%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 during the same period. This indicates that investors are shifting from high-risk, narrative-driven investments to fundamentally sound value investments.

The Credit Crisis in the AI Ecosystem

The critical turning point is that credit risks are beginning to emerge in the AI sector.

Oracle's stock initially surged after disclosing large future demand, but then fell back after revealing that these orders primarily came from OpenAI. The stock not only gave back all its gains, but its credit default swap spreads also widened—investors no longer view the company's debt repayment ability as equally secure Oracle's dilemma lies in the need to make multi-year capital expenditures to build infrastructure in order to meet customer orders that are burning cash on a large scale and have multiple commitments of billions of dollars. This risk exposure has begun to raise market concerns.

The market's repricing of risk is becoming increasingly sophisticated.

According to Bloomberg, investors are demanding a higher coupon rate for Applied Digital's bond issuance compared to similar issuances from Terawulf and Cipher Mining, as the latter two companies have the backing of Google, while Applied Digital relies on CoreWeave as its main tenant.

When a company's survival and growth depend on another equally high-risk startup, investors will demand a higher risk premium.