Behind JD.com's Q3 profit pressure: high costs of food delivery, slowdown in core electronics and home appliances business, AI-driven advertising becomes a growth highlight

JD.com Group delivered a mixed performance report in the third quarter. Although both revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded market expectations, its core profitability is under significant pressure, primarily due to substantial investments in new businesses such as food delivery, which have eroded operating profits, while growth in its traditional electronics and home appliance business has also slowed.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, JD.com achieved revenue of RMB 299 billion in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 15%, surpassing market expectations. Adjusted net profit was RMB 5.8 billion, a year-on-year decline of 56%, but still significantly exceeded analyst forecasts. However, JP Morgan analysts believe that this profit "surprise" was mainly due to gains from equity investments and other "non-core business items."

In stark contrast, the adjusted operating profit, which reflects the health of the core business, plummeted to RMB 211 million, far below JP Morgan's previous estimate of RMB 1.7 billion. The bank attributed this to unexpected fulfillment expenses arising from the food delivery and instant retail businesses.

UBS released a report on the same day expressing a similar view, stating that although the core retail business performed robustly, it was dragged down by losses from new businesses. Analysts pointed out that the market will focus in the short term on JD.com's management's statements regarding investments in the food delivery business, which are seen as key variables affecting the company's future profitability.

New businesses continue to "burn money," food delivery investments drag down operating profits

According to JP Morgan's analysis, losses from JD.com's new businesses are the primary factor putting pressure on its operating profits in the third quarter. The report indicates that the operating losses in the new business segment, including food delivery, expanded by approximately RMB 1 billion quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, reaching RMB 15.4 billion, exceeding the bank's expectations by over RMB 2 billion.

Behind the massive investments is JD.com's desire for a new growth curve. UBS's research report pointed out that JD.com's management remains "highly committed" to the food delivery business, viewing it as a long-term strategic initiative aimed at leveraging JD.com's core capabilities in the supply chain.

Despite the huge investments, analysts also see signs of improvement. UBS expects that due to improvements in the unit economic model (UE) of the food delivery business and stable order volumes, the losses in new businesses are likely to narrow quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter. However, the report also warns that the company's continued investments in Jingxi and international businesses may partially offset this improvement.

Core retail engine slows down, growth in electronics and home appliances slows

JD.com's core business—electronics and home appliances—showed signs of growth fatigue in the third quarter. Reports from JP Morgan and UBS both highlighted this risk.

Data shows that the year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue in this category slowed significantly from 23% in the second quarter to 5% in the third quarter. UBS stated in its report that although sales of mobile products such as the iPhone remain strong, the home appliance business will face more severe growth base challenges in the fourth quarter. However, the strong growth in daily consumer goods has provided some buffer for JD.com's retail business. JP Morgan's report shows that daily consumer goods sales increased by 19% year-on-year, with growth accelerating from 16% in the second quarter. UBS also pointed out that categories such as supermarkets, fashion, and health achieved double-digit growth, and management remains optimistic about maintaining this momentum in the fourth quarter.

Growth Highlights: Acceleration in AI-Driven Advertising and Marketplace Revenue

Against the backdrop of challenges in core business, JD.com's platform and advertising business has become a bright spot in the financial report. JD.com's marketplace and advertising revenue grew by 24% year-on-year in the third quarter, accelerating from 22% in the second quarter.

UBS analysts believe that this strong growth is primarily driven by two factors. On one hand, platform traffic continues to improve, with user activity and shopping frequency increasing by over 40% year-on-year; on the other hand, JD.com's continuously optimized "AI-driven advertising tools" and traffic allocation efficiency have become sustainable growth drivers.

JP Morgan stated that although the financial report data may have a mildly positive effect on the stock price, market focus will be on management's discussion of new business investments.

UBS believes that fierce competition in the instant retail sector, uncertainty regarding the narrowing losses in the delivery business, and the high base faced in the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year may limit the short-term upside potential of the stock price