Crypto 'whales' are selling bitcoin as it sinks further below $100,000. Should investors be worried?

Recent selling of Bitcoin by 'whales'—holders of large amounts of the cryptocurrency—has contributed to its price drop below $100,000. Analysts suggest this selling is profit-taking rather than panic. The market's ability to absorb these sales has weakened, with significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. The broader macroeconomic environment and technical factors have also pressured Bitcoin's price, leading to its worst weekly performance since February.

By Frances Yue But Strategy is still buying, Michael Saylor said on Friday Bitcoin was still trading below $100,000 Friday afternoon. As bitcoin traded below its key $100,000 milestone this week, recent selling by "whales" - or holders of large amounts of the cryptocurrency - along with other long-term holders has emerged as a notable contributor to the recent weakness. Most blockchain-analytics firms define "whales" as individuals or institutions holding 1,000 bitcoin or more. Although the identities of most whales are unknown, blockchain data can still offer insights into their activity by tracking their crypto wallets. Those data have shown that some whales recently stepped up their bitcoin sales. That's notable, but it's not necessarily a sign of panic, some analysts said. The recent selling could reflect steady profit-taking rather than panic dumping, they said, a pattern consistent with behavior seen in previous bull-market cycles. Such sales could reflect a "calculated distribution of assets," according to Martin Leinweber, director of digital-asset research and strategy at MarketVector Indexes. "Some bitcoiners bought [the crypto when it was trading] at single digits and waited so long. Finally you have the liquidity to sell without destroying the market completely," he told MarketWatch. While crypto bulls have complained about a draining of liquidity in markets lately, the ability to buy or sell the crypto has greatly increased versus a decade ago. Still, what could be concerning is that recent selling by whales has been coinciding with deteriorating sentiment and slower buying, which could add further pressure to bitcoin's price, according to analysts at blockchain-analytics firm CryptoQuant. The largest cryptocurrency fell on Friday to as low as $94,519, its lowest level since May 6, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It was down 9.14% so far this week, on track for its worst weekly performance since the week ending Feb. 28, when it fell 11.36%. Now versus then Bitcoin selling by longer-term and larger holders of bitcoin isn't unique to the current cycle, and analysts at blockchain-data platform Glassnode wrote in a recent note that there have been signs that suggest recent selling has been driven by profit-taking rather than panic. Looking specifically at whale wallets that held bitcoin for more than seven years and sold more than 1,000 bitcoin per hour, the sales appear to have occurred regularly and evenly over time, as shown in the chart below, which goes through Thursday, Nov. 13. "Spending" or "selling" of bitcoin appears to be a "persistent, staggered distribution," not a sudden coordinated "dump" by longstanding holders, according to blockchain-data platform Glassnode. The $100,000 milestone Meanwhile, much of the selling by whales in the past few months appears tied to bitcoin's $100,000 milestone, a level many early adopters have long viewed as a psychological threshold for taking profits, said Cory Klippsten, a longtime bitcoin investor and chief executive at bitcoin-focused financial-services firm Swan Bitcoin. "There are so many early holders I know who have talked about that number [$100,000] ever since I got into the space in 2017," Klippsten told MarketWatch. "For some reason, that was the level at which people always said they'd sell some." Selling by long-term holders has intensified since December 2024, when bitcoin rose above $100,000 for the first time in history, according to Glassnode data. What could be alarming Still, one factor that has changed is how the market has been absorbing this selling. When long-term holders sold their bitcoin late last year and earlier this year, other buyers stepped in to support the price, but that dynamic appears to have shifted, analysts at CryptoQuant wrote in a recent note. One sign of softer demand can be seen in flows into investment products. Exchange-traded funds investing in bitcoin have seen an outflow of $311.3 million this week as of Thursday, putting them on pace for a fifth consecutive week of outflows, the longest stretch since the five weeks ending March 14, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Over the past five weeks, a total of $2.6 billion has flowed out of bitcoin ETFs, the largest five-week outflow since the five weeks ending March 28, when outflows reached $3.3 billion. Recent price action also has brought the $100,000 threshold back into focus. Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 last week before recovering, then dipped under that level again on Thursday. It traded below that threshold as of Friday afternoon, which some technical analysts said likely encouraged additional profit-taking as the market failed to reclaim that key level. Adding to the pressure, the broader macroeconomic environment has not been supportive of risk assets. This has contributed to the liquidation of some long positions, noted Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, which operates a forex and crypto exchange. "We believe the market came into [the fourth quarter] with outsized expectations, driven by seasonal trend analysis that historically shows exceptional performance during this period," Kruger wrote to MarketWatch. However, as investors trim their expectations for a December interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve and as soft labor-market data raises concerns about the economy, risk assets broadly, including bitcoin, have come under renewed pressure, Kruger noted. U.S. stocks ended the week mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA up 0.3%. The S&P 500 SPX edged up 0.1% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP fell 0.5% during the stretch, logging back-to-back weekly losses. Saylor is still buying Despite all this, one of the largest known bitcoin whales has continued to buy. Michael Saylor, chair of Strategy Inc. (MSTR), a software company now viewed largely as a leveraged bitcoin play, said on CNBC on Friday that the company has been "accelerating" its bitcoin buying and will be reporting its purchases on Monday morning. Strategy held over 640,000 bitcoin as of Friday, representing more than 3% of the crypto's current supply of 19.9 million. Representatives at Strategy did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment. Ken Jimenez and Michael DeStefano contributed. -Frances Yue This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (END) Dow Jones Newswires 11-14-25 1653ET