Starting next Thursday, the "data frenzy" in the United States is coming, which is crucial for the market

After the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a backlog of economic data will be released intensively, providing key evidence for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation. The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have announced a detailed schedule, with data releases starting next Thursday.

During the shutdown, over 30 important economic reports were forced to be postponed or canceled, including core indicators such as employment, inflation, and GDP. Although the upcoming data will provide some support for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, economists point out that the "fog" caused by the information gap is difficult to dissipate quickly, and it will take time to fully digest all the data.

It is worth noting that the release of some key data still has uncertainties. The U.S. Department of Labor stated that it is uncertain whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released as scheduled, as about two-thirds of the price data need to be collected on-site and cannot be supplemented retrospectively.

Key Data Release Schedule Confirmed

The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have finalized the release schedule for the backlog of data. On November 20, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non-farm employment report, and on November 21, the September real wage data will be released.

The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the revised GDP for the third quarter will be released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on November 26, and the personal income, spending, and PCE price index for October will also be announced on the same day.

In addition, the international trade report for October will be released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on December 4 (9:30 PM Beijing Time), and on December 19, the U.S. Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the third quarter GDP.

According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, the Federal Reserve will be able to obtain complete data on September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the preliminary GDP for the third quarter before the interest rate meeting on December 9-10, with the key being whether the employment reports for October and November can be released on time.

Data Gaps Cast Shadows on Federal Reserve Decisions

The 43-day government shutdown has created an unprecedented data gap, affecting the Federal Reserve's judgment of the economic situation. Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk stated that the market was in a "very dark and foggy" state during the shutdown, and although the fog is dissipating, it will not be completely clear in a short time.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell insists that a rate cut in December is not a "foregone conclusion," and the lack of data may affect the committee's decision. He previously stated:

"What do you do when driving in the fog? You slow down."

Barclays economist Marc Giannoni pointed out that there are serious disagreements within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding the pace and timing of rate cuts, and the lack of new data makes it difficult for committee members to change their positions. If sufficient data cannot be obtained before the December meeting, it may lead to a "rather intense meeting."

Uncertainty Remains for Some Core Indicators

Although the September employment data will be released as scheduled, the October data faces challenges. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that the inflation and employment data for October "are very likely to never be released," and any data that is released will be "permanently impaired." Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, told the media:

"We will get half of the employment report. We will get the employment part, but we won't get the unemployment rate, which is just a one-month situation."

Former Bureau of Labor Statistics Director McEntarfer pointed out that consumer price data faces greater challenges. About two-thirds of the price data needs to be collected through in-store visits, which must be done in real-time.

"You can't walk into Costco in mid-November and ask about the price of a certain item in October, which is why the October CPI cannot be realized."

The data gap will affect Social Security payments tied to inflation, as well as companies' hiring and inventory decisions ahead of the holiday season. RBC economist Mike Reid stated that businesses are already dealing with uncertainties related to trade policies, consumer spending, and that it may take months for data to return to normal