UBS lowers InnoCare Pharma's target price to 23.6 yuan, last quarter's performance generally in line with expectations

UBS published a research report indicating that InnoCare Pharma (09969.HK) third-quarter performance was generally in line with expectations, with revenue increasing by 38% year-on-year to RMB 384 million, comparable to the market and the bank's forecasts of RMB 383 million and RMB 387 million, respectively. The net loss for the period reached RMB 34 million, slightly worse than the market expectation of a loss of RMB 27 million. Sales of the core product Orelabrutinib in the third quarter increased by approximately 34% year-on-year to RMB 369 million, maintaining strong growth. The company maintains its guidance for Orelabrutinib sales to grow by over 35% year-on-year by 2025, implying that fourth-quarter sales will reach approximately RMB 341 million.

UBS stated that with the recognition of the upfront payment from the collaboration with Zenas, InnoCare expects to achieve breakeven this year. Considering the impact of the upfront payment from the collaboration with Zenas, the earnings per share forecast for this year has been raised to RMB 0.05, while the earnings per share forecast for next year has been lowered by 93% to RMB 0.06. The target price has been adjusted from the original RMB 25.8 to RMB 23.6, maintaining a "Buy" rating