"Overnight," everyone is selling NVIDIA

Top global investors are selling NVIDIA. Billionaire Peter Thiel's hedge fund cleared all 537,000 shares of NVIDIA in the third quarter, while the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, cut its position by 65% during the same period. These moves occurred as NVIDIA's market value surpassed $5 trillion.

In overnight trading, NVIDIA's stock price fell 1.88% to $186.60. Thiel Macro LLC's 13F filing shows that it has completely liquidated its NVIDIA holdings in the quarter ending September 30. The previous week, SoftBank also disclosed that it had sold all its NVIDIA shares. The withdrawal of these large institutional investors indicates that even amid the ongoing AI boom, risk management is becoming a primary consideration.

This collective retreat of institutional investors coincides with the global debt cycle entering a late-stage risk phase. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio recently warned that the next financial crisis is more likely to stem from sovereign debt issues, as rising U.S. public debt and geopolitical tensions collectively heighten systemic risk.

NVIDIA will announce its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. Despite the withdrawal of real-money investors, Wall Street analysts still expect the company to deliver impressive results. A FactSet analyst survey shows that the market anticipates NVIDIA's adjusted earnings per share for the October quarter to be $1.23, with revenue of $54.83 billion.

Top Hedge Funds Reduce Positions Collectively

Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro LLC sold all 537,742 shares of NVIDIA in the quarter ending September 30. The timing of this influential Silicon Valley investor's exit is noteworthy—coinciding with NVIDIA's market value surpassing $5 trillion, which Wall Street analysts generally regard as the "unstoppable" leader in the AI field.

Bridgewater's repositioning is even more aggressive. The latest 13F filing shows that as of September 30, Bridgewater held 2.51 million shares of NVIDIA, a dramatic drop of 65.3% from 7.23 million shares at the end of the second quarter. This shift is particularly stark—just in the second quarter, Bridgewater had significantly increased its position in NVIDIA by over 150%. The sharp turnaround over two quarters marks a clear strategic shift: from "trend following" to "risk management priority."

SoftBank also disclosed last week that it had sold all its NVIDIA shares. The coordinated action of these top global institutional investors indicates that beneath the surface of the AI boom, a "risk-averse repositioning" is quietly taking place.

Macro Risks Drive Strategic Shift

Bridgewater's large-scale reduction in positions aligns with recent warnings from its founder Ray Dalio. According to previous reports, Dalio believes that the global debt cycle has entered a late-stage risk phase, and the next financial crisis is more likely to arise from sovereign debt issues rather than traditional market over-speculation.

The 13F filings also show that Bridgewater significantly increased its holdings in U.S. stock market index ETFs during the same quarter while clearing out several emerging market heavyweights. This combination of repositioning actions indicates that even the main beneficiaries of the AI boom need to reassess their risk exposure in an environment of tightening fiscal and monetary policies The continuous rise in U.S. public debt, geopolitical tensions, and central bank interventions have collectively heightened systemic risks, prompting top investors to adopt a more cautious stance on overvalued tech stocks.

Analysts Remain Optimistic About Earnings Reports

The market still holds high expectations for NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated a buy rating and a target price of $250 in his research report, stating:

Given the trends we see among hyperscale cloud providers, new cloud service providers, and frontier labs, we see no reason to believe that demand is slowing, and the market is underestimating the enormous demand for computing power in the coming years.

JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur is also optimistic, maintaining an overweight rating and a target price of $215. Sur stated in his research report:

We believe another solid performance exceeding expectations and an upward revision of guidance is imminent, and the potential upside may again depend on NVIDIA's supply chain expansion capabilities within three months