Evaluating Maplebear (Instacart: CART) Valuation Following Strong Earnings, Upbeat Guidance, and Expanding Partnerships

Maplebear (CART) delivered another quarter of earnings growth, fueled by healthy customer demand and progress expanding enterprise partnerships. Management also issued an upbeat outlook, highlighting traction from recent product launches and strategic alliances.

See our latest analysis for Maplebear.

Maplebear’s recent string of upbeat earnings, major product launches, and expanded partnerships with industry leaders like Kroger have fueled optimism. However, the short-term share price performance has been a mixed bag; after a choppy few months, the stock’s 1-year total shareholder return sits just shy of flat, hinting that the market is still waiting for momentum to really build over the longer term.

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With strong financials, upbeat guidance, and continued momentum from partnerships and tech innovation, investors may be wondering whether Maplebear’s current valuation offers room for upside or if the market has already factored in the growth story.

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

Maplebear’s most widely followed narrative values the stock notably ahead of its recent close, signaling divergence between consensus fair value and current market price. The narrative highlights a blueprint for future growth and earnings power, setting the tone for what could propel further upside.

Deepening enterprise partnerships and a growing suite of omnichannel retailer integrations (such as Storefront, Carrot Ads, Caper Carts, Carrot Tags) are increasing stickiness with major retail chains, creating new recurring revenue streams and driving higher-margin, non-transaction-based revenues (for example, advertising, in-store tech). This development makes the business model less volatile and supports sustainable margin expansion and earnings resilience.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s fueling this optimism? One key catalyst behind the narrative’s high valuation is structural expansion of margin-rich revenue streams, fueled by multi-year expectations for rising profits and accelerating enterprise adoption. Find out which critical financial forecasts underpin the bold premium over today’s price; this could be the metric that changes everything for Maplebear.

Result: Fair Value of $50.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising labor costs or further regulatory changes could threaten Maplebear’s margin expansion and reduce optimism surrounding its long-term growth forecast.

Find out about the key risks to this Maplebear narrative.

Another View: What Do Multiples Say?

While our fair value estimate suggests Maplebear is undervalued, a check against its price-to-earnings ratio presents a different perspective. The stock trades at 21.1x earnings, which is higher than both the peer average of 19.1x and the fair ratio of 17.9x. This premium indicates that investors may be paying for anticipated future growth and could encounter downside risk if expectations are not met. Does the market believe the story, or is it moving ahead of itself?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Maplebear Narrative

If you’d rather take a hands-on approach or trust your own analysis, you can dive into the numbers and craft a personalized assessment in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Maplebear.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.