BofA FMS: AI bubble biggest tail risk for 45% of respondents
BofA FMS survey reveals 45% of respondents see AI bubble as biggest tail risk. Investors believe companies are overinvesting for the first time in 20 years. Long Mag 7 is the most crowded trade for 54%. Emerging markets and banks are vulnerable to Q4 risk-off move. Without a Fed December rate cut, froth may correct further. Bullish positioning is a headwind for risk assets. Very low 3.7% cash levels are a 'sell-signal'. Global investors are most overweight stocks since February 2025 and commodities since September 2022.
- Investors say companies 'overinvesting' for the first time in 20 years
- Long Mag 7 most crowded trade for 54% of respondents
- Emerging markets and banks most vulnerable to proper Q4 risk-off move
- Froth to correct further without Fed December rate cut
- Bullish positioning a headwind not tailwind for risk assets
- Very low 3.7% cash levels are 'sell-signal'
- Global investors are most overweight stocks since February 2025
- Most overweight commodities since September 2022
These findings shouldn't surprise anyone as they've been in the financial media for a couple of weeks now. The concerns of an AI bubble really picked in the last few weeks and that coincided with Powell turning a bit more hawkish by not guaranteeing a December cut.
