U.S. factory orders rebounded 1.4% month-on-month in August, but core shipments declined

U.S. factory orders data for August shows a rebound in manufacturing activity, but the decline in core shipments adds uncertainty to the economic growth outlook.

A report released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday indicated that factory orders rose 1.4% month-on-month in August, in line with market expectations, reversing a 1.3% decline in July. The rebound was primarily driven by a 2.9% surge in durable goods orders, with transportation equipment orders soaring 7.9%.

(Factory orders increased 1.4% month-on-month in August)

However, core shipments, an important input indicator for GDP calculations, fell 0.4% month-on-month, contrasting with a 0.6% increase in July. Non-durable goods orders also showed weakness, declining 0.1% in August.

Market analysts pointed out that while this set of lagging data indicates relatively robust manufacturing activity in August, its reference value for assessing the current economic situation is limited.

Factory Orders Rebound Within Expectations

The U.S. Department of Commerce report showed that factory orders rose 1.4% month-on-month in August, consistent with economists' expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, reversing the 1.3% decline in July and improving from a larger drop in June.

The strong performance of durable goods orders was the main driver of the overall order rebound. Durable goods orders surged 2.9% in August, following a sharp decline of 2.8% in July. Transportation equipment orders jumped 7.9% in August, compensating for a 9.3% drop in July.

Core factory orders (excluding transportation equipment) only increased 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the overall increase in durable goods orders, but still achieved a year-on-year growth of 1.53%. This reflects a relatively moderate growth in manufacturing orders when excluding the more volatile transportation equipment.

Decline in Core Shipments Raises Concerns

Despite the decent performance of order data, manufacturing shipment indicators show more signs of weakness.

Manufacturing product shipments fell 0.1% month-on-month in August, ending a 0.9% growth trend in July.

More concerning is the 0.4% month-on-month decline in core durable goods shipments (excluding transportation equipment), while this indicator grew by 0.6% in July. As an important input indicator for GDP calculations, the decline in core shipments could negatively impact third-quarter economic growth forecasts.

In terms of inventory, manufacturing product inventories were basically flat in August, following a slight increase of 0.2% in July. The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the inventory-to-shipment ratio in August was 1.56, unchanged from July, indicating no significant change in inventory pressure.

Non-durable goods orders fell 0.1% month-on-month in August, after a 0.3% increase in July.

Data Lag Limits Market Reference Value

Market analysts noted that the lagging release of August data diminishes its practicality for assessing the current economic situation The August data released in November is already three months old, making it difficult to fully reflect the latest economic dynamics and changes in the market environment.

Core durable goods orders have maintained steady growth for the fifth consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in August, slightly below the expected 0.4%. This relatively stable performance indicates that manufacturing order activity remained resilient in August when excluding the more volatile transportation equipment.

(Core durable goods orders (excluding transportation equipment) increased by 0.3% month-on-month)

Although the overall data for August performed steadily, the lag effect limits the guiding significance of this data for investors in assessing the current level of manufacturing prosperity. The market is more focused on the upcoming recent data to more accurately grasp the economic direction and monetary policy outlook