Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of Gaogong Lithium Battery: Lithium battery shipments may triple in the next 10 years

On November 18, the 15th High-tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference 2025 opened in Shenzhen. Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of High-tech Lithium Battery, predicted at the conference that China's lithium battery shipments "will see more than threefold growth from 2025 to 2035." The latest solid-state battery analysis released by GGII stated that the period from 2027 (or 2028) to 2030 will be an important stage for the large-scale construction of GWh-level capacity in the all-solid-state lithium battery industry.

Journalists have gathered insights from several company leaders and industry experts, revealing that as demand for power batteries and energy storage continues to be strong, a new round of lithium battery expansion has quietly begun. Coupled with breakthroughs in new technologies such as solid-state batteries and the increase in application scenarios, China's lithium battery industry is transitioning from scale expansion to value creation, and is expected to maintain a high growth trend in the next decade.

Scene of the 15th High-tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference 2025, photographed by reporter Wang Yuqing

Price Increases in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain Are Inevitable

"Since the beginning of this year, prices in the lithium battery industry chain have stabilized and rebounded, with strong demand in the power battery and energy storage markets. A new round of lithium battery expansion has quietly begun. Especially recently, the chip shortage and supply guarantee phenomenon have spread from the energy storage field to the passenger car power battery field, and the industry is re-entering a growth channel," said Zhao Shengyu, Chairman of HaiMuxing, in his speech.

During the new round of rising prosperity in the lithium battery sector, Zhang Xiaofei predicted that China's lithium battery shipments will exceed 1.7 TWh in 2025, and there will be more than threefold growth from 2025 to 2035.

Combining relevant reports, Zhang Xiaofei further explained that it is expected that China's power lithium battery shipments will exceed 1.05 TWh in 2025, with nearly threefold growth in the next 10 years; it is expected that China's energy storage lithium battery shipments will reach 600 GWh in 2025, doubling in the next five years, with nearly threefold growth in the next 10 years.

As downstream demand surges, the demand for midstream materials is also driven. Zhang Xiaofei expects that from 2025 to 2035, there will still be more than threefold growth potential in the shipments of midstream materials, including separators and electrolytes.

Behind the rapid growth, the industry structure may undergo a structural reshaping. Zhang Xiaofei mentioned that due to the higher performance requirements from emerging markets, the share of lithium iron phosphate in cathode materials is expected to peak between 2025 and 2035. Meanwhile, with the development of technologies such as solid-state batteries, it is expected to bring over 250,000 tons of demand for high-voltage lithium-rich manganese-based materials by 2035; in anode materials, breakthroughs in processes and equipment will drive the demand for silicon-based anodes.

Regarding the highly concerned topic of rising prices in the lithium battery industry chain, Zhang Xiaofei stated that due to supply not meeting demand, price increases are inevitable. His report predicts that in 2026, the price of 280Ah energy storage cells may rise by 5% to 10%; there is a possibility of price increases for power lithium batteries The processing fee for lithium iron phosphate materials may rise by more than 500 yuan/ton; the cost of anode materials may increase by more than 1000 yuan/ton; the processing fee for copper foil materials may rise by more than 1000 yuan/ton; the spot price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to exceed 250,000 yuan/ton; the price of separators may increase by 5% to 10%; and the price of electrolytes may break through 20,000 yuan/ton.

In addition, Wang Jin, chairman of Dazhu Lithium Battery, stated that the second half of lithium batteries will usher in a comprehensive start of value creation. This profound transformation comes from the market's strong demand for high-performance, high-safety, and long-range batteries.

More than 20 domestic companies are building pilot lines for solid-state batteries

At the conference, GaoGong Industry Research Institute (GGII) released the "2025 China Solid-State Lithium Battery Industry Chain Development Blue Book" (referred to as the "Blue Book"). The Blue Book predicts the development stages of solid-state batteries and analyzes the potential changes in the lithium battery industry chain.

The Blue Book divides the development of the solid-state battery industry into four periods. From 2013 to 2018, it was the technology exploration period, mainly exploring possibilities in laboratories; from 2018 to 2023, it was the technology development period, where multiple fields began equipment verification, and various technological routes developed in parallel, with industry research focusing on how to achieve large-scale production; from 2023 to 2027, it is the early stage of market application, where semi-solid batteries are gradually applied in the digital and military markets, with large-scale matching in the new energy vehicle sector, and comprehensive development of technology patents, process equipment, and industry chain matching; from 2027 to 2040, it is the rapid market development period, where the commercialization of semi-solid batteries continues to accelerate, the application of solid-state batteries speeds up, technological routes develop in parallel, and domestic solid-state battery companies accelerate their entry into foreign markets.

The next two years are in the aforementioned third stage, "early stage of market application." According to GGII analysis, this year and next year are the transition phase for domestic solid-state battery experimental lines to megawatt-hour pilot lines, with more than 20 domestic companies vigorously building megawatt-hour solid-state battery pilot lines. In this stage, the technical performance of products is not the primary focus; customer development capabilities and cost control capabilities become important areas of attention.

After entering the fourth stage, "rapid market development period," in 2027, solid-state battery pilot lines will gradually be converted into small lines for production to accumulate process experience. It is expected that between 2027 (or 2028) and 2030, the industry will focus on building GWh-level production lines to cope with the rapid development that solid-state batteries may encounter after 2030.

In terms of market demand, GGII believes that in the next five years, energy storage will become the fastest-growing field for solid-state battery shipments, mainly driven by the shipments of semi-solid batteries. After 2027, with the installation of new energy vehicles and breakthroughs in the mass production of solid-state battery technology, new energy vehicles will become the main incremental market and application market for solid-state batteries. After 2035, emerging markets such as eVTOL and robotics will become new growth points. However, solid-state batteries are constrained by insufficient cycle performance, and their penetration rate in the energy storage market will still be relatively low From a global market perspective, the global shipment volume of solid-state lithium batteries is expected to reach 8.1 GWh in 2024, with over 95% of the global solid-state battery shipments accounted for by Chinese companies. It is anticipated that by 2035, the global shipment volume of solid-state lithium batteries will exceed 900 GWh, with all-solid-state battery shipments surpassing 550 GWh.

(Semi) Solid-State Battery Capacity Expected to Experience a Construction Boom

According to the blue paper analysis, there is only a small overlap between the all-solid-state battery and liquid lithium battery supply chains in certain areas, such as upstream minerals, positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials, and packaging materials, while most other links differ significantly. The mass production of all-solid-state batteries will have a certain impact on the existing liquid lithium battery supply chain, but it will be more positive, enriching the current lithium battery industry landscape.

It is expected that from 2025 to 2026, there will be a peak period for the construction of solid-state battery capacity, primarily focusing on semi-solid-state batteries, with the energy storage sector expected to prioritize capacity release. It is anticipated that after 2030, the capacity of all-solid-state batteries will reach several tens of GWh, which is expected to drive the demand for electrolyte materials to exceed one million tons, and the demand for equipment will exceed ten billion yuan.

As an equipment supplier, Zhao Shengyu introduced that the investment amount for solid-state battery production lines is approximately 250 million to 300 million yuan per GWh. Among this, the value of the front-end accounts for 35%-40%, the mid-section accounts for 40%-45%, and the remainder is for the back-end. Although he believes that breakthroughs in all-solid-state batteries are still quite challenging, the industrialization of solid-state batteries remains a strategic high point.

Currently, there is still a significant gap between capacity planning and actual construction. According to incomplete statistics from GGII, in the past four years, the total planned expansion amount for the domestic solid-state battery industry has exceeded 250 billion yuan, with planned capacity exceeding 450 GWh, of which over 98% are semi-solid-state batteries. In terms of actual capacity realization, the industry has currently put into production over 25 GWh, with actual effective utilization capacity being less than 20 GWh.

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