The weight loss battle "has been decided," Eli Lilly approaches "the first $1 trillion pharmaceutical company"

In the battle for the lucrative weight loss drug market, the scales are tipping decisively, with Eli Lilly moving towards the goal of becoming the first pharmaceutical company with a market value of one trillion dollars.

According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal on November 18, the weight loss drug craze is about to give rise to a trillion-dollar company—Eli Lilly. With its overwhelming advantage in GLP-1 drugs, Eli Lilly is rapidly widening the gap with its competitors.

The latest market dynamics show that Eli Lilly has achieved a decisive lead in this competition. Its weight loss drug Zepbound, although only set to launch at the end of 2023, has successfully surpassed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, capturing the vast majority of new obesity drug prescriptions as production capacity increases and new clinical data emerges.

This shift is clearly reflected in market valuations. Since March 2024, Eli Lilly's market value has soared from over $700 billion to about $970 billion, while Novo Nordisk, which had a market value exceeding $500 billion at that time, has now fallen to about $200 billion.

Eli Lilly's growth story may just be beginning. A recent agreement with the Trump administration, which exchanged price reductions for broader federal Medicare and potential Medicaid coverage, is expected to bring approximately 40 million new patients to its weight loss drug, significantly expanding its market base.

Key Growth Bottlenecks Are Being Broken

Previously, supply shortages had limited the growth of both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. However, reports indicate that both companies have now resolved their production capacity issues. More importantly, Eli Lilly is preparing to launch an oral version of its weight loss drug.

Citi healthcare strategist Traver Davis pointed out that unlike the supply and insurance coverage disparities faced by injectables at launch, oral medications are easier to scale up production and are priced lower, entering a "structurally ready market."

Eli Lilly's global expansion also seems to be just getting started. Data shows that Eli Lilly's drug Mounjaro (which has the same ingredients as Zepbound) saw overseas revenue in the third quarter of 2025 leap from $728 million in the same period last year to $2.97 billion. Notably, about 75% of these sales come from cash payments by obesity patients.

This indicates that as market access in Brazil, Europe, and other regions improves and reimbursement from health insurance enhances, the global opportunities for GLP-1 drugs may be the "real sleeping giant" in Eli Lilly's story.

High Valuations and Patent Risks

However, if Eli Lilly's market value quickly surpasses one trillion dollars, debates about its valuation will intensify. Currently, the company's stock price is about 34 times its forward earnings, higher than Nvidia or Microsoft (around 30 times), and far exceeding the pharmaceutical industry's average of about 16 times.

However, according to FactSet forecasts, the annual sales of Eli Lilly's two star drugs are expected to exceed $40 billion by 2026 and approach $60 billion before 2030, which may support its high valuation The biggest long-term risk lies in the patent system. Unlike technology companies that can infinitely iterate their products, any blockbuster drug faces the "physical law" of patent expiration. Citigroup's Davis bluntly stated, "This will be the largest patent cliff in history." At that time, competition from companies like Amgen and Pfizer will also intensify