Can XPeng really become the "Chinese version of Tesla"?

After experiencing significant fluctuations in stock prices, can XPeng truly become the "Chinese version of Tesla"?

According to the Wind Trading Platform, JP Morgan analyst Nick Lai stated in a recent report that XPeng is following Tesla's technological path, extending its self-developed chip and algorithm capabilities into the two major AI fields of robotaxi and humanoid robots, and nearly doubling its target price to $50/195 HKD.

However, JP Morgan also indicated that the road to the AI vision is not smooth; the company needs to address numerous challenges (such as reducing the manufacturing costs of the humanoid robot IRON) and achieve key milestones (such as delivering L4 autonomous vehicles by the end of 2026). Additionally, market expectations for R&D expenses to continue rising are major concerns for investors.

Strategic Transformation: Benchmarking Tesla's AI Roadmap

The core bullish logic of the report lies in the fact that XPeng is firmly replicating Tesla's technological roadmap. JP Morgan believes that XPeng extending its self-developed chip and algorithm capabilities into the cutting-edge AI fields of Robotaxi (autonomous taxis) and humanoid robots is key to its valuation reshaping.

Specifically:

In the robotaxi business, XPeng plans to launch three robotaxi models and start trial operations in 2026. JP Morgan expects that in the early stages, 60-80% of L4 vehicle sales will come from end consumers, gradually shifting towards robotaxi operators by 2028-2030.

The humanoid robot IRON is another important layout. The company aims to achieve mass production by the end of 2026 and has set a long-term goal of selling over 1 million units by 2030. Internal forecasts from JP Morgan indicate that the global humanoid robot market will have a compound annual growth rate of 220% from 2025 to 2035. Considering cost and application maturity, the initial application scenarios for IRON will focus on specific environments such as showrooms, office receptions, security, and factory workers (e.g., clients like Baosteel).

Additionally, XPeng plans to launch a strong model cycle in 2026-2027, offering both pure electric (BEV) and extended-range (EREV) dual power options for most models. Management emphasized that the extended versions of the existing three models will be launched in the first quarter of 2026, with plans to introduce four new models throughout the year. Analysts predict that new models will drive a 35% increase in sales next year.

JP Morgan believes that progress in these three business areas will provide "ammunition" for XPeng's long-term transformation.

We believe that the next major stock price surge will occur in 2026-27, driven by the company's AI plans... Although investors may not see significant revenue contributions from these plans until the second half of 2026/Q4 or later... we believe that as the visibility of technology deployment increases, XPeng's stock price will begin to actively factor in its AI ambitions starting in the second quarter/second half of 2026.

However, the road to AI ambitions may be rocky, and investor concerns are real: high R&D costs, whether L4 vehicles can be delivered on schedule by the end of 2026, and how to reduce the manufacturing costs of the humanoid robot "IRON" are all challenges that lie ahead JP Morgan did not shy away from this and provided three valuation models—bear market, baseline, and bull market—through scenario analysis to quantify the potential upside and financial pressure. In terms of valuation, JP Morgan adopted the SOTP (Sum of the Parts) method, with a target price of HKD 195 based on the valuation of new businesses such as Robotaxi and humanoid robots under a "bear market scenario." This means that even under the most conservative assumptions, XPeng's AI story remains attractive