After the trillion-dollar sell-off, the divergence between bulls and bears has intensified: Goldman Sachs CEO remains bearish, while former Barclays CEO says "healthy adjustment, not a bear market."

After a $1.6 trillion sell-off in the global stock market, top investment institutions on Wall Street have shown significant divergence in their outlooks. Goldman Sachs CEO warns that the market may decline further, while former Barclays CEO believes this is just a healthy adjustment rather than a precursor to a bear market.

On Wednesday local time, Goldman Sachs President and COO John Waldron stated in Singapore, "I think the market may further pull back from its current position," and pointed out that the technical aspects lean more towards protective operations and more downside potential.

In contrast, former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond is relatively optimistic about the market outlook. He stated, "We are seeing risk assets being repriced. In my view, this is a healthy adjustment, not a sign that we are turning into a bear market."

The S&P 500 index has fallen more than 3% this month, on track for its worst monthly performance since March. Investors are closely watching NVIDIA's earnings report, which is seen as a key indicator of the sustainability of the AI boom and market stability.

Goldman Sachs Warns of Bearish Technicals

Goldman Sachs President Waldron stated in an interview that the current market's technicals lean more towards protective operations and downside risks. He believes the market has already seen considerable gains this year, and the current pullback "is healthy."

Waldron particularly focused on the issue of AI investment returns: "The market is now seriously concerned about this AI dynamic: Are we going to get returns from the capital investments that the market expects, and has this been priced in? This is a significant debate." He expects any further market decline to be moderate, "I don't think it will be more pronounced than it is now."

Regarding credit market risks, Waldron specifically pointed out the vulnerability of the subprime loan market and stated that underwriting standards have begun to loosen, but this does not mean a credit crisis is imminent.

Former Barclays CEO: Healthy Adjustment, Not a Bear Market

Former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond, on the same day, held a relatively optimistic view of the current market turmoil: "We are seeing risk assets being repriced, and in my view, this is a healthy adjustment, not a sign that we are turning into a bear market."

Diamond believes that investors are still exploring the factors of technological change, which explains the recent turmoil in global markets.

He remains confident about the long-term impact of AI: "I am reassured about the impact of AI over the next two to three years and five years. I believe it will play a truly positive role in curbing inflation and will be very important for global economic productivity. I think some people are confused about valuations right now."

Algebris Warns of Major Adjustments for AI Stocks

Davide Serra, founder and CEO of Algebris Investments, issued a more pessimistic warning at a forum. He advised investors to reduce their allocations to the world's top tech companies, stating, "It is very likely that we will face significant adjustments." Serra's pessimistic outlook is based on doubts about the revenue prospects of the AI revolution. He believes that "given the level of global public debt and the extent to which taxes need to be increased, achieving revenue sufficient to justify the AI revolution by 2030 is 'impossible.'"

The veteran fund manager also pointed out that "the share of the United States in the global market is approaching a mathematical limit: historically, no economy has ever accounted for 70% of global valuations. Therefore, we are reaching a peak."

NVIDIA's earnings report will "set the tone" for the market

All institutions are focusing their attention on NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report.

Analysts believe that NVIDIA's earnings report will be a very important moment for the market. Market strategist Ryan Grabinski stated that the results of NVIDIA's earnings report are likely to have a ripple effect on both the U.S. and international markets. Although overall expectations for AI have cooled in recent weeks, this report could potentially shift sentiment back to optimism.

Currently, Wall Street's fear index VIX has risen above 24, exceeding the critical level of 20 that raises concerns among traders, and has reached its highest point in a month. The global market is hanging on the key question of whether AI spending can deliver meaningful returns.