[Chips] US chip stocks decline dragging down Hong Kong stocks, take the opportunity to bet on a rebound, pay attention to SMIC call 22511 / Alibaba call 14761

Despite the impressive earnings report from U.S. chip giant NVIDIA, the S&P 500 index experienced its largest intraday reversal since April on Thursday (November 20), dropping over 3.5% from its high, which also dragged the Hang Seng Index down by more than 600 points on Friday morning. Concerns about external risks may weigh on the Hang Seng Index, and for hedging or bearish strategies, one may consider put warrants (20877) with an exercise price of 24,875 points, expiring in March 2026, with an actual leverage of 9.2 times. Conversely, the Hang Seng Index has seen six consecutive days of bearish candles, accumulating a 6% decline. For those looking to capitalize on a rebound, call warrants (19661) with an exercise price of 29,145 points, expiring in February 2026, and an actual leverage of 15.6 times may be considered.

Mainland chip leader SMIC (981) was also dragged down by the U.S. stock market, falling nearly 5% on Friday. However, looking back at its third-quarter earnings report, it performed excellently, with operating revenue increasing by 6.9% quarter-on-quarter to 17.16 billion yuan, and net profit soaring by 43.1% to 1.52 billion yuan. This was mainly due to strong AI demand and tight chip production capacity, with the utilization rate in the third quarter soaring to 95.8%. For those optimistic about SMIC, call warrants (22511) with an exercise price of 88.05 yuan, expiring in June 2026, and an actual leverage of 4 times may be of interest. Conversely, for those bearish, put warrants (21090) with an exercise price of 62.81 yuan, expiring in July 2026, and an actual leverage of 3.1 times may be considered.

One of the mainland AI leaders, Alibaba (9988), will announce its earnings next Wednesday. Earlier, it officially released the open-source model Qwen3 and launched the Qianwen APP. With a free strategy and strong technology, Qianwen is challenging OpenAI, quickly rising to third place on the App Store's free chart within just two days, aiming to create an AI lifestyle portal. If optimistic about AI driving Alibaba's performance next week, bullish investors may focus on call warrants (14761) with an exercise price of 182.09 yuan, expiring in March 2026, and an actual leverage of 6.4 times. Conversely, the company's stock price has also been dragged down by the U.S. stock market, falling below the 150 yuan mark. For those continuing to be bearish, put warrants (20775) with an exercise price of 137.9 yuan, expiring in March 2026, and an actual leverage of 5.4 times may be considered.

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