Google and Microsoft "double kill" approaching, OpenAI in unprecedented crisis!

OpenAI has faced two major shocks in succession.

First, this week, OpenAI's main partner Microsoft and chip giant Nvidia announced a $350 billion "strategic partnership" with OpenAI's competitor Anthropic. This collaboration has nearly doubled Anthropic's valuation since September, marking a new phase in the alliances within the AI field.

Immediately following, Google released its latest and supposedly "smartest" AI model, Gemini 3. In early tests, Gemini 3 has already outperformed ChatGPT, especially when compared to OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.1 model last week.

This series of events has made OpenAI, which has gained fame since the launch of ChatGPT nearly three years ago, appear more vulnerable in its industry dominance than ever before.

These developments are occurring against a backdrop of unstable market sentiment. Earlier this month, growing concerns over an AI (Artificial Intelligence) bubble triggered a massive sell-off in tech stocks, with analysts uneasy about the widening gap between astronomical valuations and relatively meager revenues. Although Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report on Wednesday reignited investor enthusiasm, the ultimate landscape of the AI field remains full of uncertainties.

Is OpenAI's technological lead no longer?

Currently, market opinions on whether OpenAI can maintain its dominant position are divided. Some analysts expect that Anthropic, particularly Google, will continue to erode OpenAI's lead.

Mike O’Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading, stated, "Given Google's scale, industry position, and its first-mover advantage in search, Gemini may capture market share, leaving OpenAI and others behind."

Other views are more direct. AI skeptic Gary Marcus wrote in a recent blog post, "OpenAI has essentially squandered its once-held technological lead; Google has caught up."

Although Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang dismissed the notion of an "AI bubble" during communications with investors, stating, "We are seeing something very different," the market's tense sentiment has not fully dissipated. Various signs indicate that the gauntlet has been thrown down, and OpenAI's monopoly may be a thing of the past.

Gemini 3 Pro surpasses GPT-5.1 in all aspects

Wall Street Journal reported that in terms of multimodal processing capabilities, Gemini 3 Pro has established a significant advantage over its competitors. In multimodal benchmark tests such as MMMU-Pro, ScreenSpot-Pro, and Video-MMMU, this model has shown a significant leap compared to Gemini 2.5 Pro and generally outperforms GPT-5.1 and Claude 4.5 In the logical reasoning tests for image understanding, including benchmarks like Humanity's Last Exam, ARC-AGI-2, AIME 2025, and MathArena, Gemini 3 Pro has significantly outperformed its predecessor as well as competitors like GPT-5.1 and Claude 4.5.

Intensifying Competition, User Moat Narrowing

For OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, a particularly noteworthy signal is that the user gap is continuing to narrow. Google claims that its Gemini application now has 650 million monthly active users. In contrast, Altman claimed last month that ChatGPT's weekly active users reached 800 million. Although the statistical criteria differ, the user growth momentum of competitors is evident.

At the same time, key roles in the supply chain are also beginning to tilt towards competitors. Nvidia has signed a contract for the first time, agreeing to provide its AI hardware to Anthropic. This means that OpenAI's advantage in computing resources may be weakened, while Anthropic's R&D and commercialization capabilities will be significantly enhanced. With Google making measurable progress in model technology and Anthropic receiving support from giants, OpenAI, once synonymous with AI, is facing increasingly severe pressure.

Trillion-Dollar Gamble, High Valuation Under Test

In the face of competition, OpenAI's strategy seems to be to double down, planning to invest over $1.4 trillion in data center construction over the next few years. However, the company is still consuming billions of dollars each quarter. This aggressive capital expenditure strategy may transmit uncertainty from Wall Street to the private equity market.

For investors, this means that finding reasonable support for OpenAI's "astronomical valuation" is becoming increasingly difficult in the face of fierce competition that may suppress potential revenue growth. This dilemma also echoes the market's general concerns about an AI bubble, namely whether the current high valuations are sustainable