Due to U.S. consumer data falling short of expectations and the potential &#34;dovish&#34; candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, market expectations for interest rate cuts have risen, driving global stock markets higher and the dollar weaker. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement has once again triggered safe-haven demand, supporting an increase in gold prices.
On November 26, U.S. stock index futures rose collectively, European stock indices opened higher overall, and Asian stock indices strengthened simultaneously. U.S. Treasury prices retraced previous gains, the dollar index fell, and gold, silver, and oil all rose, with cryptocurrencies rebounding.
Recently, as the backlog of economic data during the U.S. government shutdown has been released, coupled with several Federal Reserve officials intensively signaling dovish stances, market expectations for interest rate cuts have significantly strengthened, with traders estimating that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at next month's meeting has exceeded 90%.
Pepperstone Group strategist Dilin Wu pointed out that the sustainability of the market rebound &#34;fundamentally depends on whether subsequent data can validate the narrative of an economic soft landing,&#34; due to the disruption of the normal release rhythm of economic data caused by the previous government shutdown.
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li>U.S. stock index futures rose collectively, with S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.36%, Nasdaq 100 futures up over 0.5%, and Dow futures up over 0.2%</li>
<li>The Euro Stoxx 50 index opened up 0.6%, Germany's DAX index rose 0.55%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.2%, and France's CAC 40 index rose 0.6%</li>
<li>The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.8%, at 49,559.07 points, Japan's Topix index rose 2%, at 3,355.50 points, and South Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed up 2.7%, at 3,960.87 points</li>
<li>The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose 2 basis points to 4.01%, while Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.815%</li>
<li>The dollar index fell nearly 0.2%, at 99.73</li>
<li>Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,151.21 per ounce, spot silver rose 0.89% to $51.92 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rose 0.5% to $62.1 per barrel</li>
<li>Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $87,647.35</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have driven risk assets higher, with U.S. stock index futures rising across the board, Nasdaq futures up over 0.5%, and the dollar index down 0.2% below the 100 mark. The market is closely watching the developments regarding the Federal Reserve chair candidates, with White House chief economic advisor Kevin Hassett being a major contender, whose previous public calls for interest rate cuts have further strengthened market expectations for easing.
MLIV team leader Garfield Reynolds stated:
<blockquote>
“As investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026 while other major central banks maintain rates, the dollar may face a new round of weakness at the start of the new year. Additionally, Hassett's current public calls for rate cuts are well known to align closely with Trump's overall tendency to support low rates.”
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/494e4a4d-728d-473d-abbf-4207d4160a08.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/494e4a4d-728d-473d-abbf-4207d4160a08.png"/>
</blockquote>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/330d4a76-e2cb-4ea8-97ae-69ae7a02ed31.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/330d4a76-e2cb-4ea8-97ae-69ae7a02ed31.png"/>
The Bank of Japan is signaling to the market that it may raise interest rates as early as next month. Driven by expectations of an interest rate hike, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.815%. Despite the Japanese Prime Minister stating readiness to take &#34;necessary&#34; foreign exchange actions, the yen remains weak, depreciating against the dollar to 156.39.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/80fce349-8ffa-4b52-893a-60c8f7f30cdb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/80fce349-8ffa-4b52-893a-60c8f7f30cdb.png"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/23ed8398-b832-48fc-931e-fe668f0c496c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/23ed8398-b832-48fc-931e-fe668f0c496c.png"/>
Supported by safe-haven demand driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine situation, spot gold rose 0.5% during the day, reporting at $4,151.21 per ounce. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fcaa3f42-fac2-4568-98d8-032229ee4511.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fcaa3f42-fac2-4568-98d8-032229ee4511.png"/>
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at their own risk

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Affected by U.S. consumer data falling short of expectations and potential dovish candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, market expectations for interest rate cuts have risen, driving global stock markets higher and the dollar weaker. Uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement has triggered safe-haven demand, leading to increases in gold, silver, and oil prices, while cryptocurrencies have rebounded. U.S. stock index futures, European stock indices, and Asian stock indices have all risen, the dollar index has fallen, and spot gold, silver, and Brent crude oil have increased, with Bitcoin also rising. Traders expect the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month to exceed 90%

- U.S. consumer data fell short of expectations, leading to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts, which boosted global stock markets and weakened the dollar.  
- As uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire reignited safe-haven demand, gold prices rose, with U.S. stock index futures and European stocks showing gains.  
- The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve chair selection, with expectations of a rate cut exceeding 90% for the upcoming meeting, while Japan signals potential interest rate hikes.

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Interest rate cut expectations rise, global stock markets surge, the US dollar weakens, gold, silver, and oil collectively rise, and cryptocurrencies rebound