The patent for the semaglutide compound used for weight loss and blood sugar reduction will expire in March 2026. Novo Nordisk recently confirmed this information to Caijing.
This means that generic drugs for the GLP-1 drug semaglutide will be launched in concentrated batches starting in 2026, with at least 11 companies having submitted applications. Based on past experience, the price of generic drugs is generally 10% to 60% of the original drug.
Is the era of low-price competition for weight loss drugs about to arrive?
In the United States, after it was clearly stated that the price of weight loss drugs would drop by about 65% in 2026, the stock price of weight loss giant Eli Lilly has continued to hit new highs, making it the first pharmaceutical company in the world with a market value exceeding $1 trillion; Pfizer spent over $9 billion to acquire a company focused on the development of weight loss drugs; Novo Nordisk offered $10 billion in an attempt to &#34;cut in&#34; on Pfizer, but unfortunately lost.
This is good news for over 100 Chinese companies still developing weight loss drugs, indicating that international giants still believe this is a market worth significant investment. What is its uniqueness? What kind of Chinese companies and products can escape the fate of low-price competition and find their own future?
<h2>The best-selling may not be the cheapest</h2>
It is expected that after the core patent for semaglutide expires, the generic drugs will mainly be launched by well-known Chinese pharmaceutical companies, such as Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group, Livzon Pharmaceutical Group, and Huadong Medicine. Some managers from these companies do not shy away from the potential price war that may come in the future.
One investment project manager from a major pharmaceutical company stated publicly that in the later competition of GLP-1, factors such as production capacity, cost, and management ability will become key, all of which will affect product pricing.
Homogeneous products will be the main force in the future price war, such as GLP-1 injectables with the same target and similar efficacy, including generic semaglutide and many GLP-1 single mechanism sustained-release formulations currently under development.
&#34;The competition for GLP-1 will definitely become increasingly fierce,&#34; said an executive from a weight loss drug development company, &#34;but it may not be entirely a low-price competition.&#34;
In the Chinese market, the best-selling GLP-1 may not be the cheapest.
Four companies in China have already launched long-acting GLP-1. In addition to Eli Lilly's tirzepatide and Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, there are also Chinese companies such as Yino Pharmaceutical's isupatide α and Innovent Biologics' mazdutide. Mazdutide was co-developed by Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly.
According to the &#34;low price wins&#34; approach, the semaglutide that was launched and approved for weight loss first and is the cheapest in China should sell the best. However, Novo Nordisk's financial report shows that its market share in China's weight loss and blood sugar reduction market is declining.
In the first quarter of 2025, Novo Nordisk's obesity product (mainly the weight loss version of semaglutide) achieved sales of 704 million Danish kroner (approximately 780 million yuan) in China, but fell to about 158 million Danish kroner (approximately 175 million yuan) in the second quarter, and 117 million Danish kroner (approximately 129 million yuan) in the third quarter
The sales of the sugar-lowering version of semaglutide are also declining. Novo Nordisk stated in its third-quarter report that the main reason is &#34;wholesaler inventory adjustments.&#34; In the performance communication meeting after the third-quarter report, CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar admitted that the growth in the Chinese market was below expectations.
In China, all GLP-1 weight loss indications are not included in medical insurance, and weight loss patients are all self-paying. On the two major internet sales platforms, JD.com and Meituan, the best-selling GLP-1 is the most expensive tirzepatide.
Based on the price estimates from e-commerce platforms, the monthly average cost of semaglutide injection and isapreotide α is about 750 RMB—1750 RMB, marsudotide is about 970 RMB—2640 RMB, and tirzepatide is about 1200 RMB—3000 RMB.
Data from Meituan indicates that tirzepatide is the platform's standout GLP-1 product, with sales exceeding 500,000 orders from its launch at the end of 2024 to early September 2025. The total sales volume of GLP-1 products on the platform from 2023 to September 2025 is approximately 2 million orders.
JD.com did not disclose specific data, but during the recently concluded &#34;Double 11&#34; shopping festival, the sales ranking of its GLP-1 related products showed that from October 9 to November 11, the best-selling product was also tirzepatide, with the sugar-lowering version of semaglutide injection and marsudotide ranking second and third.
In 2024, semaglutide injection remains the largest drug in terms of online sales in China, but its market share in the weight loss market is being taken away by its &#34;expensive alternatives.&#34;
<h2>Redefining &#34;Patient Education&#34;</h2>
Compared to the price pressure of generic drugs entering the market, the future competitive landscape for weight loss drugs is more complex.
According to the MoShang Pharmaceutical Database, in 2024, semaglutide injection is expected to achieve 1.776 billion RMB in sales through online channels. Considering that the sugar-lowering version of semaglutide was included in the medical insurance reimbursement scope in 2022, those purchasing the sugar-lowering version online are likely self-paying users for weight loss purposes.
Eli Lilly's management stated in the third-quarter performance communication meeting of 2025 that in major markets outside the United States (including Europe, Japan, China, etc.), 75% of tirzepatide's revenue comes from self-paying weight loss users.
Unlike the price-sensitive hospital market, in the outpatient self-paying market, brand influence is greater than price advantage.
The best-selling lipid-lowering drug in China is Pfizer's original atorvastatin, which has a monthly drug cost of around 150 RMB, more than ten times that of generic drugs. However, according to data from Minai Network, its sales in 2023 exceeded 4.3 billion RMB, ranking first; among atorvastatin generics, Lepu Pharmaceutical has the highest sales, exceeding 600 million RMB.
The industry's original view was that the brand advantage of original drugs might be concentrated in drugs priced at one or two hundred RMB. It now appears that GLP-1 drugs with monthly costs in the thousand RMB range exhibit stronger consumer product attributes, even overturning the previous prescription drug sales logic
In the past, the sales of prescription drugs mainly relied on academic promotion, which is the influence of pharmaceutical companies and drugs among doctors; to achieve significant growth, it must enter the medical insurance system.
However, consumers purchasing GLP-1 drugs are no longer limited to traditional medical scenarios but are actively searching and buying through e-commerce platforms and social channels.
&#34;Now the competition for GLP-1 largely depends on online sales,&#34; an industry insider told Caijing, stating that the internet will become the main sales channel for weight loss drugs, estimated to account for over 70% of the market share.
This trend is particularly evident among younger groups, who are more inclined to obtain medication information through social media, forming a new closed loop for medication decision-making: social platforms &#34;planting grass,&#34; online shopping channels for consultation + purchasing, and then returning to social platforms to share usage experiences, such as &#34;medication check-ins&#34; and &#34;weight loss diaries.&#34;
Sound familiar? This is a typical path of the internet &#34;grass-planting economy.&#34; Compared to in-hospital promotion, platforms have a greater influence on the sales of GLP-1 products.
According to a survey conducted by Yimijie from September to October, among 450 doctors who had previously diagnosed obesity, only 19% were aware of semaglutide. However, this did not prevent it from selling approximately 600 million yuan in its first quarter on the market, about five times the sales of the weight loss version of liraglutide during the same period.
In the prescription drug market, pharmaceutical companies were accustomed to &#34;taking it slow,&#34; first reaching out to doctors, starting with chief physicians in top-tier hospitals in first-tier cities, and gradually moving to second, third, and fourth-tier cities, achieving comprehensive patient education through doctors.
GLP-1 changed the rules, redefining &#34;patient education&#34; into more interactive and communicative content operations. In China, among doctors treating obesity patients, the awareness rate of semaglutide is the highest, reaching over 90%, which is three times that of Eli Lilly's liraglutide. However, online, liraglutide sells better.
Whoever can seize users' minds on social platforms, continuously replicate the &#34;planting grass—conversion—sharing&#34; closed loop, and achieve rapid fission will gain market initiative. The &#34;e-commerce flavor&#34; of the GLP-1 market is stronger than anyone imagined. In promotion, some companies are directing users to private community groups to increase stickiness, encouraging users to document their weight loss journeys and turning individual stories into brand narratives.
Few people know the clinical trial data for semaglutide, liraglutide, and dulaglutide. However, buyers of liraglutide and dulaglutide both told Caijing that they are the new generation of GLP-1 weight loss drugs after semaglutide, believing they have better weight loss effects.
This is the result of &#34;planting grass,&#34; which brings unprecedented rapid volume growth for prescription drugs. For instance, dulaglutide was approved for weight loss at the end of June, launched for sale in early July, and was just approved for diabetes treatment on September 19, exactly one quarter apart. In the third quarter, the product sales revenue of Innovent Biologics increased by about 600 million yuan compared to the second quarter, with dulaglutide being the biggest variable. It is worth noting that Innovent Biologics' previous blockbuster product PD-1 took nearly two years from approval to achieve quarterly sales of 600 million yuan
Now, multinational pharmaceutical companies have also joined in, with semaglutide and tirzepatide frequently appearing on social media platforms. After years of calling for the era of digital marketing for pharmaceuticals, it has arrived overnight.
<h2>What is a true moat?</h2>
&#34;Consumer products need to be constantly iterated.&#34; A secondary market investment analyst pointed out that GLP-1 has consumer attributes, making it easy to become a &#34;internet celebrity&#34; in the consumer market through marketing, but difficult to maintain long-term popularity. In such a market, brand influence, product strength, supply chain, and innovation capability are all indispensable.
Iteration is another important reason why tirzepatide and masitide can capture the weight loss market from semaglutide.
In the GLP-1 field, semaglutide is the first-generation weekly formulation. It can activate the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor, which is secreted by intestinal cells and has the effect of suppressing appetite, thereby achieving blood sugar reduction and weight loss.
Tirzepatide and masitide, on the other hand, are dual-mechanism GLP-1. In addition to acting on the GLP-1 receptor, tirzepatide can also activate the GIP receptor, which helps suppress gastric acid secretion and delay gastric emptying; masitide can simultaneously activate the GCG receptor, promoting energy metabolism in the liver and adipose tissue. Both are believed to provide better weight loss effects.
This is a familiar cycle in the pharmaceutical circle: for the same target, new iterative products with better efficacy can capture the market of the previous generation products, as represented by the various insulins continuously launched by Novo Nordisk.
As generic drugs engage in fierce price wars, more complex competition will occur among original research drugs.
Now, Novo Nordisk has initiated a new round of iteration—oral GLP-1, having previously submitted a marketing application for oral semaglutide for weight loss to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). &#34;The FDA is expected to complete the review by the end of this year,&#34; Novo Nordisk wrote in a response to Caijing.
Oral administration has been the research direction for GLP-1 for many years. It is more convenient than injections, with no needles, no bleeding, and no need for refrigeration, making it easy to carry. A pharmaceutical head at an investment institution told Caijing, &#34;These advantages can significantly improve patient compliance, thereby driving the enhancement of efficacy and sales.&#34;
Oral semaglutide has been launched in both China and the United States, with the current indication being blood sugar reduction. Based on the experience of semaglutide injection, once it is approved for weight loss, it will usher in a new round of sales growth. This will be a growth period &#34;exclusively enjoyed&#34; by Novo Nordisk.
Eli Lilly stated in November to Caijing that it plans to submit a marketing application for the oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron to global regulatory agencies soon. According to previously disclosed information, the drug has successfully reached the endpoints of Phase III clinical trials for both weight loss and blood sugar reduction indications.
Due to the requirement for oral semaglutide to be taken on an empty stomach, swallowed whole, and not to eat, drink, or take other medications half an hour before taking it, orforglipron, which can be taken at any time of the day, still has the opportunity to &#34;iterate&#34; on oral semaglutide
&#34;It's not easy to make oral formulations.&#34; An analyst from an international investment institution told Caijing that peptide drugs are easily destroyed by gastric acid, and their stability and bioavailability are relatively poorer than that of injectables, which leads to the medication restrictions faced by oral semaglutide. In contrast, small molecule GLP-1 has a higher research and development difficulty and is not as &#34;competitive&#34; as injectables at this time.
In China, established pharmaceutical companies such as HengRui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and China National Pharmaceutical Group are all developing oral small molecule GLP-1 drugs. Among them, HengRui Medicine has progressed to Phase III clinical trials, while Hansoh Pharmaceutical's product is in the preclinical stage and has been licensed to multinational pharmaceutical company Merck for a total price of $2 billion. Innovent Biologics' oral small molecule GLP-1 is expected to obtain approval for clinical trials in the United States and China in 2025.
In addition to generic semaglutide, there are at least about 150 companies in China conducting research and development on various GLP-1 drugs, exploring different directions such as oral formulations, multi-mechanisms, ultra-long-acting, and lipid-lowering without muscle loss. These are also common choices among multinational pharmaceutical companies.
In Innovent Biologics' pipeline, there are also some undisclosed weight loss and blood sugar-lowering products. &#34;The ultra-long-acting formulation IBI3030, which is in the preclinical research stage, is a multi-target APC that synergizes GLP-1/GCGR/GIPR three targets with PCSK9 antibody action, aiming to achieve longer dosing intervals while further enhancing high-quality weight loss and metabolic benefits,&#34; the company wrote in a response to Caijing. PCSK9 inhibitors can lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in the blood and are used to treat hypercholesterolemia and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, commonly known as &#34;lipid-lowering injections.&#34;
Among the more than 100 companies in China developing weight loss products, those who can find their unique future market space are more likely to break out of &#34;involution&#34; and escape the fate of low-price competition.
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The patent for semaglutide compounds will expire in 2026, leading to a concentration of generic drugs entering the market, which may trigger a price war. Nevertheless, the stock price of weight loss drug giant Eli Lilly has reached new highs, and Pfizer and Novo Nordisk are also actively investing in the weight loss drug market. Chinese companies have opportunities in the research and development of weight loss drugs but must contend with price wars. The competition for GLP-1 drugs will become more intense, and the best-selling products may not necessarily be the cheapest

- The patent for the weight-loss and diabetes drug semaglutide will expire in March 2026, allowing for the entry of generics, with at least 11 companies already applying.  
- Despite the anticipated price competition, major pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk continue to invest heavily in this market, indicating its potential profitability.  
- The future of GLP-1 drugs will likely hinge on brand influence and innovative marketing strategies, as evidenced by the success of more expensive alternatives in the Chinese market.

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