Minsheng Securities:The technology stock market from 1995 to 2000 can be roughly divided into three periods: (1) 95-97, upstream equipment companies saw significant revenue growth, while downstream internet business models were immature; (2) 97-98, capital expenditure by midstream service providers increased significantly, and downstream internet companies emerged on a large scale; (3) 99-00, downstream revenue grew rapidly but cash flow conditions continued to deteriorate.The current stage of AI development is more similar to the 1997 node: upstream equipment manufacturers have already seen revenue growth, and NVIDIA's revenue growth rate after 2023 is very consistent with Cisco's revenue growth rate after 1995; at the same time, midstream capital expenditure is increasing, but there are hidden concerns on the downstream application side.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bc54a0d6-a67a-4c78-ae96-1670bd67f05f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bc54a0d6-a67a-4c78-ae96-1670bd67f05f.png"/>

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CSCO

Minsheng Securities believes that the current stage of AI development is similar to the internet node in 1997. The revenue growth of upstream equipment manufacturers such as NVIDIA is consistent with the growth characteristics of Cisco after 1995, with increased capital expenditure in the midstream, but there are concerns on the downstream application side

- The internet market from 1995 to 2000 can be divided into three phases: significant revenue growth for upstream equipment companies from 1995 to 1997, increased capital expenditure for midstream service providers from 1997 to 1998, and rapid revenue growth for downstream companies with deteriorating cash flow from 1999 to 2000.  
- The current stage of AI development resembles the 1997 phase, with revenue growth for upstream equipment vendors already evident.  
- Nvidia's revenue growth post-2023 shows characteristics similar to Cisco's after 1995, while there are concerns regarding downstream applications despite increased midstream capital expenditure.

Is today's AI like the internet in 1997?