Investment Insights -
Oracle and Broadcom both suffer heavy losses, NASDAQ hits the largest single-day drop in three weeks!
On Monday (December 15), the Asia-Pacific stock markets fell across the board, with the Nikkei 225, Taiwan Weighted Index, Korea Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index all dropping over 1%. The reason behind this is that last week, U.S. President Trump indicated to The Wall Street Journal that he preferred to choose a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair from among Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, and Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council. He expressed hope that interest rates could be lowered to 1% or even lower in a year, as rate cuts would help the U.S. Treasury reduce the cost of financing its $30 trillion government debt.
The market is concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a broad decline in U.S. stocks, with Oracle and chip giant Broadcom both experiencing significant drops, with Broadcom closing down 11.4% and Oracle's credit risk indicator reaching a 16-year high, closing down 4.5%. The NASDAQ recorded its largest single-day drop in three weeks! The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 5%. Risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased and further spread to the Asia-Pacific stock markets.
It is worth noting that there is currently a divergence in U.S. short-term and long-term Treasury yields, with the yield on the 2-year Treasury note falling to 3.52%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.18%; the 30-year yield rose to 4.84%, reaching its highest level since September. In fact, the divergence in short-term and long-term Treasury yields reflects investors' simultaneous concerns about the U.S. labor market and inflation.
Even more concerning is that as long-term bond yields rise, they exert pressure on U.S. stocks. Coupled with the market's growing concerns about the substantial spending and uncertain earnings of artificial intelligence (AI) companies, market risk sentiment has significantly cooled. Cloud giant Oracle and chip leader Broadcom both fell sharply, with Broadcom reporting strong earnings but closing down 11.4%, and Oracle's credit risk indicator hitting a 16-year high, closing down 4.5%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 5%, and a series of signs indicate that U.S. stocks may have entered a state of high valuation + high volatility.
Looking ahead, investors should pay close attention to the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November, which will be released on Tuesday (December 16). This report will be the first employment report after the U.S. government reopens and will also include some data from October's non-farm payrolls. The market generally expects a decrease of 10,000 jobs in October's non-farm payrolls, but a strong rebound in November, with an increase of 130,000 jobs. However, the rebound in the labor market may be more related to seasonal data adjustments rather than a &#34;real improvement in worker demand.&#34;
If the non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it is likely to further pressure U.S. stock earnings. However, the current core influencing factor for U.S. stocks remains the inherent contradiction of massive capital expenditures in the upstream AI industry chain and the uncertain earnings of downstream companies. Therefore, if the non-farm payrolls are released after the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December, which is likely to end the preventive rate cuts, the policy vacuum may increase the adjustment pressure on U.S. stocks.
NASDAQ-100 Index Technical Analysis: 25,000 points are in jeopardy!
NASDAQ-100 Index Daily Chart:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20251215/17657882676118.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.mistorebox.com/insights/cms_uploads/uedimg/20251215/17657882676118.png"/>
Image source: tradingview
The daily chart shows that the NASDAQ-100 Index has been blocked twice at 26,000 points and has created the largest single-day decline in three weeks, with a short-term bias towards downward movement. If it further breaks below 25,000 points, it is expected to test the support at 24,000 points

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The Asia-Pacific stock market fell across the board, with the NASDAQ experiencing its largest single-day drop in three weeks, due to market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the divergence in U.S. Treasury yields. Oracle and Broadcom saw significant declines in their stock prices, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 5%. Investors are focused on U.S. non-farm payroll data

The divergence between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields puts the NASDAQ-100 Index at risk of falling below 25,000 points!