Goldman Sachs expects Guming and MIXUE's same-store sales to decline next year, reiterating a "Buy" rating

Goldman Sachs published a research report indicating that it held an expert meeting on the Chinese fresh beverage market yesterday (16th), with an expert who operates multiple milk tea shops in Zhejiang and Shanghai as a franchisee, including brands such as Bawang Chaji (CHA.US), Chabaidao (02555.HK), and Friday Fun. The main conclusions include the expert's expectation that subsidies will exit in the medium to long term, putting pressure on consumers; emerging small brands find it difficult to expand their store scale to over 10,000 in the fierce competition, but the expert believes that niche brands with strong development momentum are expected to achieve profitability within 6 to 8 months.

Goldman Sachs' internet team expects that the related losses of Alibaba-W (09988.HK) and Meituan-W (03690.HK) in food delivery will narrow by the end of December and in 2026. Considering the reduction in subsidies, Goldman Sachs predicts that same-store sales for Guming (01364.HK) and MIXUE Ice City (02097.HK) will decline by 6% and 4% respectively in 2026, and through the expansion in blank markets, these two groups are expected to achieve net new store openings of 3,400 and 9,000 respectively.

In addition, Goldman Sachs believes that Guming and MIXUE Ice City's high-quality product supply and brand momentum, along with the company's actual efforts (such as category expansion), will also provide support for next year. It reiterates a "Buy" rating for both stocks; based on a projected 25 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, it sets a 12-month target price of HKD 32 for Guming, and based on a projected 30 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, it sets a 12-month target price of HKD 579 for MIXUE Ice City