New Research Shows Americans Bear 96% Of U.S. Tariff Costs

Americans Pay Almost Entirely for Trump’s TariffsPlease consider Americans Pay Almost Entirely for Trump’s TariffsAlthough the US government intended the tariffs to target foreign businesses, the policy actually harms the domestic economy. “The tariffs are an own goal,” says Julian Hinz, Research Director at the Kiel Institute and one of the authors of the study. “The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth. The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill.” The tariffs act like a consumption tax on imported goods.The research team analysed more than 25 million shipment records covering a total value of almost four trillion US dollars in US imports. The findings are clear:US customs revenue increased by approximately 200 billion US dollars in 2025.Foreign exporters absorbed only about four percent of the tariff burden, 96 percent passed through to US buyers.Trade volumes collapsed, but export prices did not fall.Falling Import Volumes2025: tariffs on Brazilian imports were suddenly raised to 50 percent, and for India, from 25 to 50 percent. Again, the data show that foreign exporters did not lower their prices to offset the additional tariffs. Had exporters absorbed the tariffs, their US prices would have fallen relative to other markets—but this was not the case.“We compared Indian exports to the US with shipments to Europe and Canada and identified a clear pattern,” Hinz explains. “Both export value and volume to the US dropped sharply, by up to 24 percent. But unit prices—the prices Indian exporters charged—remained unchanged. They shipped less, not cheaper.”Kiel Policy BriefThe 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices.US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely by Americans.Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead.Indian export customs data validates our findings: when facing US tariffs, Indian exporters maintained their prices and reduced shipments. They did not “eat” the tariff. We did not need a study to confirm the obvious. But there you go.Related PostsJanuary 3, 2026: What Was the Overall Impact of Trump’s Tariffs in 2025?Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade WarJanuary 6, 2026: If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, What Are His Options?I count seven options Trump is likely to try. There are serious problems with all of them.January 13, 2026: If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, How Big Might Refunds Be?US customs trade data, compared to Trump’s Truth Social claim. Possible decision January 14.January 17, 2026: Canada Breaks With the US, Cuts Tariffs on Some Chinese EVsCongrats to Trump for moving Canada and China closer together.January 17, 2026: Trump Hits European Nations With Tariffs Until Deal Reached to Buy GreenlandIf you need another reason IEEPA tariffs are idiocy, you have one.More By This Author:EU To Halt U.S. Trade Deal Over Trump’s New Greenland Tariff On 8 Countries Canada Breaks With The U.S., Cuts Tariffs On Some Chinese EVsIndustrial Production Up 0.4 Percent Led By 2.6 Percent Surge In Utilities