CITIC Securities: Anta's brand matrix is resilient, target price lowered to 95 yuan, continues to recommend "buy"

The research report from CMSC indicates that due to the warm winter and holiday misalignment, ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK) experienced weak sales in the fourth quarter of 2025, but this was in line with expectations, reflecting the strong resilience of its multi-brand matrix. The firm expects ANTA to still achieve its revised sales guidance for 2025, with the Fila brand having completed its annual target ahead of schedule in mid-November, while outdoor brands Descente and Kolon continue to contribute steady growth.

Channel research shows that although the main brand of ANTA faces short-term pressure due to online transformation, its strategic adjustments are gradually showing results. Looking ahead to the 2026 fiscal year, the firm expects the operating profit margin of mature brands to remain stable, mainly due to strict cost control. However, there are still short-term disruptive factors, including reduced interest income and an expected widening of losses for the Jack Wolfskin brand due to high investments in product localization and supply chain integration. Additionally, while the "Super ANTA" new retail model has met productivity assessment targets, its profitability currently lags behind other new retail formats due to the lack of scale effects.

Despite facing these transformation pains, ANTA's current price-to-earnings ratio is only about 14.5 times, at a two-year low. The firm believes that most short-term adverse factors have been reflected in the valuation, but the market still underestimates ANTA's rigorous acquisition discipline and its ability to achieve brand differentiation in similar categories. Furthermore, if the main brand of ANTA can reinvigorate its online strategy, leveraging more cutting-edge content and product operational capabilities, it is expected to inject new growth momentum into the brand.

The firm maintains an "Overweight" rating on ANTA, lowering the target price from 121 yuan to 95 yuan, and reducing the net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by approximately 5%