Author | Zhou Zhiyu
Editor | Zhang Xiaoling
On January 21, Vanke welcomed a landmark moment since the intensification of liquidity games.
According to Wall Street News, the extension proposal for &#34;21 Vanke 02&#34; was approved with over 92% of votes in favor. This real estate giant, at the center of the storm, secured a breathing window in the public debt game, temporarily avoiding substantial default. It also provided a reference model for Vanke's upcoming negotiations on two medium-term notes.
In recent days, Vanke's stock and bond markets have fluctuated anxiously. With today's plan finally implemented, the stock price rose by more than 4.59%, and domestic bonds generally increased.
An analyst from a foreign investment bank specializing in real estate believes that the reason &#34;21 Vanke 02&#34; received over 90% approval is primarily due to adjustments made to the proposal after two months of negotiations, responding to investors' demands.
Looking back over the past two months, Vanke's journey in the domestic bond extension negotiations has been exceptionally difficult. The previous three bond extension attempts encountered cold responses, and even after multiple revisions to the proposals, they still failed to surpass the 90% holder approval threshold. The success of &#34;21 Vanke 02&#34; lies in Vanke's substantial changes in sincerity.
In previous negotiations, creditors criticized the lack of immediate cash repayment in the proposal, with intentions for &#34;zero down payment&#34; extensions even surfacing. In this proposal, Vanke clearly stated that it would immediately repay 40% of the principal on January 30.
Vanke also set a key clause: a fixed repayment of no more than 100,000 yuan for each securities account. Although voting rights in the bondholders' meeting were calculated based on face value, the emotional contagion of small and medium investors often drives proposals to fail. This met the demands of a large number of small and medium holders who are most sensitive to risk.
Additionally, in this extension, Vanke pledged receivables from project companies such as Wuhan Wanyun Real Estate and Xixian New Area Kezhu Real Estate as credit enhancement measures.
This combination of &#34;cash down payment + core asset pledge&#34; signifies that the game between real estate companies and creditors has entered a close combat stage. Creditors no longer accept grand narratives; they only look at the certainty of the next 12 months. Without tangible asset pledges and cash down payments, extension proposals are difficult to advance.
While &#34;21 Vanke 02&#34; successfully passed, Vanke still faces a heavy &#34;debt wall&#34; to overcome.
2026 is the peak period for Vanke's domestic bond repayments, with a total principal amount exceeding 12 billion yuan maturing or being exercised throughout the year. Moreover, in the coming week, two medium-term notes (totaling 5.7 billion yuan) that failed to reach consensus also need investor approval to smoothly avoid short-term public debt defaults.
Unlike the company bonds approved today, the holders of medium-term notes (MTN) are mostly banks and large institutions with extremely stringent risk controls. The decision-making logic of these institutions is more rigid. Whether the success of today's 1.1 billion yuan can be replicated in the 5.7 billion yuan institutional game will directly determine Vanke's credit quality in the first quarter of 2026.
The approval of the 1.1 billion yuan extension is merely a signal. It tells the market that creditors do not wish to see Vanke collapse, and Vanke is willing to stay at the table by delivering the most valuable chips. However, in the time leading up to 2026, the discount rates of asset disposals, the efficiency of cash returns from sales, and those undisclosed debts yet to be addressed will be the real keys to whether this giant can &#34;survive.&#34;
At present, real estate companies must undergo a painful process of scraping the bones and detoxifying.
On one hand, there is the extreme compression of organizational structure. In order to allow decision-making instructions to reach the front line more quickly, real estate companies have to cut down on lengthy management levels; on the other hand, there is the extreme activation of assets.
A calm yet cruel fact is that passing the extension does not mean survival, but merely indicates staying at the table.
On the policy level, although the &#34;white list&#34; mechanism allows project loan extensions of up to five years, there remains a significant temperature difference between this project-level safe haven and the public debt pressure at the company level.
In this temperature difference, real estate companies must learn to balance between ensuring housing delivery and maintaining credit.
The industry has passed the era where willpower and slogans could suffice. The future Vanke may have to accept a scale reduction to one-third or even smaller, turning to earn extremely hard and low-margin operational management fees.
Today's successful extension brings a glimmer of warmth to this cold winter. What Vanke and the entire industry need is not only to gain more time through extensions but also to figure out how to use this time to undergo a complete transformation

159940

159768

515060

159707

512200

000002

The extension of the 1.1 billion bond has been approved

Wallstreetcn

GF CSI All Share Financials ETF

Yinhua CSI Interior Real Estate Theme ETF

ChinaAMC CSI All Share Real Estate ETF

Hwabao WP CSI 800 Real Estate ETF

China Southern CSI All Share Real Estate ETF

Vanke

Vanke narrowly passed a hurdle