By Emily Bary
Analysts say fintech stocks look like prime beneficiaries of a changing regulatory environment and Trump's 'affordability' initiatives
SoFi could benefit from shifts in the lending market and a healthier U.S. consumer, Citi analysts say.
As President Donald Trump talks up his themes of populism, investors can benefit - but they've been seeking out stock opportunities in the wrong places, according to Citi analysts.
&#34;Traders have been looking for potential beneficiaries, even relative ones, in consumer stocks, but we think investors may be missing a more interesting opportunity in fintech,&#34; or financial technology, wrote a team of analysts led by Drew Petitt.
Whether Trump's various &#34;affordability&#34; pushes prove successful is an open question. But if &#34;populism&#34; measures like a proposed one-year cap on credit-card interest rates and limits on institutional home purchases actually leave Americans with more spending power, it's not just retailers that would win, the Citi team said. The analysts are drawn to &#34;disruptive&#34; fintech companies that can capitalize on both a changing regulatory landscape and a healthier U.S. consumer.
Bryan Keane of Citi highlights Block (XYZ), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), Toast (TOST) T, Klarna Group (KLAR) and Bill Holdings (BILL). &#34;These platforms monetize simplification with faster onboarding, improved transaction transparency and embedded financial services that displace higher-cost bank, card or manual workflows,&#34; he wrote.
Affirm and Klarna both offer buy-now-pay-later services that cater to the &#34;underbanked,&#34; Keane noted.
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Block plays into that theme as well, through its Cash App and Afterpay businesses, and the company also serves merchants through its Square business. That part of Block could get a boost if Trump's policies are able to spur more small-business formation, the analysts noted. So could Bill, which makes software for back-office tasks, and Toast, which markets point-of-sale offerings.
These companies are gaining market share from incumbent providers and would get a boost from regulatory shifts. &#34;Potential policy tailwinds include expanded [small-business] tax credits, faster digital-payments adoption and consumer-protection frameworks that favor transparent pricing models over opaque revolving credit,&#34; according to Keane.
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Citi also highlighted some plays on cryptocurrency and lending, including Coinbase Global (COIN), SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Bullish (BLSH), Upstart Holdings (UPST) and Pagaya Technologies (PGY).
&#34;Regulation is driving legitimacy for digital-asset names&#34; such as Coinbase, Circle and Bullish, said Citi's Peter Christiansen. Following last summer's passage of the Genius Act, a measure that established stablecoin frameworks, he's watching the Clarity Act, which &#34;is currently in the Senate...and plans to be a comprehensive reform of the entire digital-assets space.&#34;
Meanwhile, SoFi, Upstart and Pagaya play into the theme of lending. They &#34;could see tailwinds from other populist regulation should it feed through to an expansion of private-credit markets (or disruption of current sources) and general consumer strength,&#34; Christiansen said.
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His Citi colleague Steve Enders tabbed a few software companies that could be beneficiaries as well: Shopify (SHOP), which operates e-commerce infrastructure; Intuit (INTU), which makes tax-preparation and credit-management tools; and HubSpot (HUBS), which offers marketing products.
&#34;On the consumer side, a potential change in tax policy or stimulus on top of the changes from the OBBBA could lead to elevated refund activity and a more challenging tax environment, both of which have led to elevated spend on tax software for TurboTax in the past,&#34; Enders wrote, referring to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
TurboTax is an Intuit product, as is CreditKarma, which &#34;has been taking share within the lending market with better consumer health potentially leading to increased willingness for lenders to provide financial products to consumers.&#34;
Like some of the pure fintech plays, Shopify and HubSpot would get a lift from policies that incentivize small-business formation or leave existing small businesses with more financial firepower.
-Emily Bary
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-22-26 0730ET

<p>Citi analysts suggest that fintech stocks may benefit from President Trump's populism initiatives, particularly in a changing regulatory environment. Companies like SoFi, Block, Affirm, and Klarna could gain from increased consumer spending power and regulatory shifts favoring transparency in financial services. Additionally, cryptocurrency firms such as Coinbase and lending platforms like Upstart may also see advantages from potential policy changes. Analysts highlight that these fintech companies are positioned to capitalize on new opportunities in the market.</p>

- Analysts from Citi identify fintech stocks as potential winners from upcoming regulatory changes and Trump's affordability initiatives, especially SoFi.  
- They emphasize the opportunity for "disruptive" fintech companies like Block, Affirm, and Klarna, which could gain from improved consumer spending and market share against traditional financial services.  
- Regulatory measures favoring transparent pricing and small-business support could enhance the growth of these fintech companies, alongside digital-asset firms like Coinbase and Circle.

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Coinbase

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Klarna

ARK Fintech Innovation ETF

Global X Fintech

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Upstart

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SOFI ETF

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Affirm

T-REX 2X Long AFRM Daily Target ETF

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Direxion Daily Crypto Industry Bull2XETF

Block

These stocks could be big winners from Trump's 'populism' push, according to Citi