Mainland car companies accelerate the reshaping of the global market landscape; facing domestic price wars, "going abroad" becomes a growth strategy

In the face of fierce price wars in the domestic automotive market, "going abroad" has become a strategy for Chinese car companies to seek growth. By 2025, China's automobile export volume is expected to exceed 7 million vehicles, maintaining its position as the world's largest automobile exporter for the third consecutive year since surpassing Japan for the first time in 2023; the export growth rate of new energy vehicles has doubled. In Thailand, where Japanese cars have long dominated, the market share of Chinese electric vehicles has exceeded 90%; in traditional automotive powerhouse Germany, several Chinese brands have achieved multiple growth in sales. Recently, markets such as Germany and Canada have successively relaxed restrictions on automobile imports and subsidy thresholds, opening up important new growth windows for Chinese car companies. Against this backdrop, Chinese automobiles are accelerating the reshaping of the global market landscape at an unprecedented scale and speed. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, pointed out that in 2025, China's automobile exports will not only grow rapidly in quantity but also show three major structural breakthroughs: First, the market distribution is trending towards diversified balance. The reliance on Russia over the past three years will be broken in 2025. In the first three quarters, Mexico became the largest market for Chinese automobile exports with approximately 411,000 vehicles, followed closely by the UAE with about 368,000 vehicles, while Russia fell to third place with about 358,000 vehicles. Cui analyzed that the Russian market is currently in a period of inventory adjustment, and it is expected to rebound next year, but overall exports will continue to develop more evenly across global markets. Presenting Three Major Structural Breakthroughs Secondly, significant breakthroughs have been achieved in the high-end market. The market share of Chinese brands in major European markets has significantly increased. For example, in the UK, its market share rose from 4.4% in the same period last year to 9.8% in the third quarter of 2025; in Germany and France, the share has also doubled. Among them, BYD's sales in Germany are expected to grow by 700% year-on-year in 2025, while Leapmotor's growth rate is as high as nearly 40 times. Thirdly, new energy vehicles have become the core driving force for exports. In 2025, China's total automobile exports are expected to be approximately 7.098 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports will reach 2.615 million vehicles, doubling year-on-year. Although fuel vehicles still account for the majority throughout the year, the proportion of new energy vehicles is rapidly catching up. By November 2025, among the 810,000 vehicles exported that month, the combined share of pure electric and plug-in hybrid models had reached 43%, nearly on par with the 40% share of fuel vehicles. Shen Jianguang, vice president and chief economist of JD Group, predicts that benefiting from the cost advantages brought by technological innovation and breakthroughs in the industrial chain, new energy vehicle exports are expected to maintain a good growth momentum in the future. In fact, from production capacity layout, marketing investment to supply chain collaboration, it can be seen that Chinese automotive brands are systematically expanding overseas markets with unprecedented scale and determination. In terms of production capacity, several major car companies have planned substantial production capacities overseas: Chery Automobile over 2 million vehicles, BYD over 1.8 million vehicles, Geely Automobile over 920,000 vehicles, Great Wall Motors over 600,000 vehicles, and Changan Automobile also exceeding 860,000 vehicles. Comprehensive estimates suggest that the total production capacity of the Chinese automotive industry laid out overseas is approaching 10 million vehicles. This means that "overseas production and overseas sales" will replace simple vehicle exports and become the mainstream model in the future In terms of marketing budget, industry insiders revealed that Dongfeng, GAC, and XPeng's overseas marketing expenses are expected to double by 2025. The exhibition contractor, Peking Far East, also confirmed that its Southeast Asian business has experienced rapid growth for two consecutive years, with major clients being Chinese car companies expanding into overseas markets. In terms of industrial chain collaboration, taking Thailand as an example, with over 20 Chinese brands such as BYD and Great Wall establishing operations, power battery companies like Zhongchuang Innovation and Guoxuan High-Tech have also set up factories, investing over 30 billion Thai Baht (approximately HKD 7.5 billion). The same model is being replicated in Europe: after BYD established a factory in Hungary, CATL and EVE Energy quickly followed suit, with the latter planning to build the largest battery base in Europe. Subsequently, upstream companies such as separator and cathode material manufacturers have also followed up with investments, forming a complete industrial collaboration network. Under the strong competition of electric vehicles in China, traditional giants are facing increasing pressure. According to PwC data, in the first half of 2025, the market share of Japanese automakers led by Toyota in the six major Southeast Asian markets has dropped from an average high of about 77% in the 2010s to 62%. Industry Concerns About "Involution" Spreading Overseas However, behind the booming momentum, hidden dangers are beginning to emerge. As several Chinese brands launch price offensives in markets such as Southeast Asia and Japan, there are concerns in the industry that the phenomenon of "involution" is spreading overseas. According to a report by Nikkei in September, BYD has lowered the price of its electric vehicles in Japan by up to 1.17 million yen (approximately 56,700 RMB), with the small car Dolphin becoming the cheapest electric vehicle brand locally. Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of Beifang University of Technology, pointed out that the logic of overseas "involution" is similar to that in the domestic market: when products do not sell well, car companies often choose to lower prices to clear inventory, leading to a vicious cycle. He analyzed that, except for a few high-end new energy vehicle models like Nio and some BYD models priced at three times their domestic prices in Europe, Chinese cars overseas generally follow a low-price route, with weak brand premium capabilities. In the face of this dilemma, Zhang proposed establishing an "export quota" mechanism to limit the annual export ceiling for each car company, thereby curbing disorderly competition from the source. "If all companies are allowed to freely go overseas, price wars will inevitably severely damage the overall industry profits."