The sales of liquor are gradually picking up, is there a bottom layout for a rebound during the Spring Festival?

Public fund holdings have fallen back to the bottom of 2015. When the market is extremely pessimistic, the "golden pit" of the liquor sector may have already appeared. Latest data shows that public fund holdings in liquor have declined for nine consecutive quarters, dropping to 2.9%, close to the historical bottom of 2015. However, stripping away the noise from sentiment, the fundamental data is contradicting the bears: Moutai's sales in January exceeded expectations, with the batch price holding firm at 1,570 yuan. Although Yanghe's performance has halved, it has announced a 100% dividend commitment. Several brokerages believe that under the extremely pessimistic holding data, the Spring Festival rebound window for the liquor sector may have opened. For investors, the current point of contention is whether to trust the retreating capital flows or the warming terminal sales data. Major Clean-up of Holdings: Institutional Holdings Return to 2015 Levels According to research from Huachuang Securities, by the fourth quarter of 2025, fund holdings in the food and beverage sector had dropped to 4.0%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of decline. More strikingly, the liquor sector's holdings are down to only 2.9%, further cut by 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. CITIC Securities points out that the current overweight ratio in the liquor sector is only 1.0%, lower than the levels in Q1-Q2 of 2013. This indicates that the panic selling by institutional investors has been completed, and the chip structure is extremely clean. As long as there is marginal improvement in the fundamentals, the elasticity of short covering will be considerable. Moutai Batch Price Stabilizing, Billion Cash Cushion as "Safety Net" Don't be misled by market noise; the fundamentals of high-end liquor are much stronger than imagined. CITIC Securities' research found that Moutai's sales and batch prices have recently been better than market expectations. Moutai and its exclusive stores' spontaneous group purchases have broadened the consumer base, effectively trading out the price bottom. Currently, the overall channel sales volume has slightly increased, with prices holding firm around 1,570 yuan. Although there are differences in the delivery progress of traditional channels (ranging from 10% to 30%), there has not been a significant decline in sales. More critically, during the performance clearing cycle, cash flow is king. As of September 2025, WLY has 136.3 billion yuan in cash on hand, while Luzhou Laojiao holds 31.7 billion yuan in cash. These massive cash reserves are sufficient to support them in maintaining high dividends during performance fluctuations, providing a strong safety margin for stock prices. "Expectation Gap" for the Spring Festival Peak Season The Spring Festival of 2026 may be an important turning point. Huachuang Securities points out that this year's Spring Festival is later and the holiday is longer, leading to a stronger siphoning effect than in previous years. The market has been overly pessimistic about sales, and the actual situation is highly likely to correct this pessimistic expectation The performance of regional leaders confirms this point. Gujinggongjiu has a solid market share in Anhui, and Gu16 remains strong against the trend, with inventory starting to marginally decrease in Q3 2025. Jinhui Jiu is experiencing rapid growth in the northwest market, especially in Shaanxi, with the Baoji market already mature, driving efforts in places like Xi'an. China Merchants Securities predicts that with the arrival of February (the two weeks before the festival), traditional channel sales are expected to accelerate. At this time, rather than focusing on past negatives, it is better to pay attention to the marginal changes that are occurring. The bottom of the liquor market may quietly be forming amidst this pessimism