<p>Spot Northeast gas, power prices soar due to Arctic blast</p>
<p>Gas futures fall 11% on milder weather forecasts</p>
<p>LSEG reports drop in U.S. gas output due to freeze-offs</p>
<p>(adds latest prices, details)</p>
<p>By Scott DiSavino</p>
<p>NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell 11% on Tuesday on forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, a small increase in output as some frozen wells return to service and as gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remain low. In the spot market, however, gas and power prices in the Northeast soared to record highs as the brutal freeze boosts heating demand and tests electric grids across the region.</p>
<p>On its second-to-last day as the front-month, gas futures for February delivery  (NGc1)  on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 78.1 cents, or 11.5%, to $6.019 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Over the prior five days, the contract soared by 119% to its highest since December 2022 as the winter storm froze wells and cut output to a two-year low.</p>
<p>Futures for March  (NGH26) , which will soon be the front-month, were trading down about 4% to $3.74 per mmBtu.</p>
<p>In the cash market gas prices for Tuesday soared 242% at the Algonquin Hub  (NG-CG-BS-SNL)  in New England to a record $173 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), while next-day prices at the Eastern Gas hub  (NG-PCN-APP-SNL)  in Pennsylvania jumped 47% to a record $59.</p>
<p>In the power market, spot prices at the PJM West Hub (E-PJWHRTP-IX)  in Pennsylvania and Maryland soared 146% to a record $1,014 per megawatt hour (MWh).</p>
<h3>SUPPLY AND DEMAND</h3>
<p>Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states dropped to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.</p>
<p>On a daily basis, output was on track to rise to 93.5 bcfd on Tuesday after falling to two-year lows of 92.4 bcfd on Monday and 92.5 bcfd on Sunday, due mostly to freezing wells in Louisiana, Texas and North Dakota, according to LSEG data. That compares with a recent high of 110.0 bcfd on January 12 and an all-time daily high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.</p>
<p>That means output fell about 17.6 bcfd from January 13-26. In past winters, freezing wells, known as freeze-offs in the energy industry, have slashed gas output by massive amounts, including the loss of around 17.2 bcfd from January 8-16 in 2024, cuts of 15.8 bcfd from December 20-24 in 2022, and a drop of 20.4 bcfd from February 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data.</p>
<p>Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 11 – though not nearly as cold as the weekend of January 24-25.</p>
<p>LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 169.0 bcfd this week to 155.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.</p>
<p>On a daily basis, LSEG said total demand reached 176.2 bcfd on January 26, which was lower than its 178.6 bcfd forecast earlier in the day and fell short of the Lower 48 daily all-time high of 181.2 bcfd set on January 21, 2025.</p>
<p>Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.7 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to 13.7 bcfd on Tuesday after dropping to a one-year low of 11.6 bcfd on Monday due to reductions at several plants during the weekend winter storm, including Freeport LNG in Texas and Elba Island in Georgia.</p>
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<h3>Y-</h3>
<h3>SN</h3>
<h3>L</h3>
<p>*</p>
<h3>PG  3.  3.  3.  3.  5.</h3>
<p>&amp;E  39  55  87  42  47</p>
<p>Ci</p>
<p>ty</p>
<p>ga</p>
<p>te</p>
<p>&lt;N</p>
<h3>G-</h3>
<h3>CG</h3>
<p>-P</p>
<h3>GE</h3>
<p>-S</p>
<h3>NL</h3>
<p>*</p>
<p>Ea  58  40  3.  2.  2.</p>
<p>st  .7  .0  74  79  96</p>
<p>er  3   0</p>
<p>n</p>
<p>Ga</p>
<p>s</p>
<p>(o</p>
<p>ld</p>
<p>Do</p>
<p>mi</p>
<p>ni</p>
<p>on</p>
<p>So</p>
<p>ut</p>
<p>h)</p>
<p>&lt;N</p>
<h3>G-</h3>
<h3>PC</h3>
<h3>N-</h3>
<h3>AP</h3>
<h3>P-</h3>
<h3>SN</h3>
<h3>L</h3>
<p>*</p>
<p>Ch  65  34  3.  3.  3.</p>
<p>ic  .8  .1  93  23  60</p>
<p>ag  1   6</p>
<p>o</p>
<p>Ci</p>
<p>ty</p>
<p>ga</p>
<p>te</p>
<p>&lt;N</p>
<h3>G-</h3>
<h3>CG</h3>
<p>-C</p>
<h3>H-</h3>
<h3>SN</h3>
<h3>L</h3>
<p>*</p>
<p>Al  17  50  15  6.  5.</p>
<p>go  2.  .5  .6  08  04</p>
<p>nq  50  0   7</p>
<p>ui</p>
<p>n</p>
<p>Ci</p>
<p>ty</p>
<p>ga</p>
<p>te</p>
<p>&lt;N</p>
<h3>G-</h3>
<h3>CG</h3>
<p>-B</p>
<h3>S-</h3>
<h3>SN</h3>
<h3>L</h3>
<p>*</p>
<p>So  7.  7.  4.  3.  5.</p>
<p>Ca  44  01  49  60  71</p>
<p>l</p>
<p>Ci</p>
<p>ty</p>
<p>ga</p>
<p>te</p>
<p>&lt;N</p>
<h3>G-</h3>
<h3>SC</h3>
<h3>L-</h3>
<h3>CG</h3>
<h3>T-</h3>
<h3>SN</h3>
<h3>L</h3>
<p>*</p>
<p>Wa  9.  17  3.  1.  2.</p>
<p>ha  95  .1  27  15  88</p>
<p>Hu      6</p>
<p>b</p>
<p>&lt;N</p>
<h3>G-</h3>
<h3>WA</h3>
<h3>H-</h3>
<h3>WT</h3>
<h3>X-</h3>
<h3>SN</h3>
<h3>L</h3>
<p>*</p>
<h3>AE  1.  2.  1.  1.  2.</h3>
<h3>CO  70  15  22  13  13</h3>
<p>&lt;N</p>
<h3>G-</h3>
<h3>AS</h3>
<h3>H-</h3>
<h3>AL</h3>
<h3>B-</h3>
<h3>SN</h3>
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<p>Hu  Cu  Pr  Th  Pr  Fi</p>
<p>b   rr  io  is  io  ve</p>
<p>en  r   Mo  r   -Y</p>
<p>t   Da  nt  Ye  ea</p>
<p>Da  y   h   ar  r</p>
<p>y       La  Av  Av</p>
<p>st  er  er</p>
<p>Ye  ag  ag</p>
<p>ar  e   e</p>
<p>20  (2</p>
<p>25  02</p>
<p>1-</p>
<p>20</p>
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<p>)</p>
<p>Ne  31  31  14  77  61</p>
<p>w   2.  2.  7.  .6  .7</p>
<p>En  50  50  88  1   9</p>
<p>gl</p>
<p>an</p>
<p>d</p>
<p>&lt;E</p>
<p>-N</p>
<h3>EP</h3>
<h3>LM</h3>
<h3>HP</h3>
<p>-I</p>
<h3>DX</h3>
<p>*</p>
<h3>PJ  10  41  75  60  54</h3>
<h3>M   14  2.  .1  .2  .4</h3>
<p>We  .4  84  1   3   7</p>
<p>st  0</p>
<p>&lt;E</p>
<p>-P</p>
<h3>JW</h3>
<h3>HR</h3>
<h3>TP</h3>
<p>-I</p>
<h3>X</h3>
<p>*</p>
<p>Mi  51  58  52  44  68</p>
<p>d   .0  .7  .7  .8  .9</p>
<h3>C   1   0   9   1   6</h3>
<p>&lt;W</p>
<p>-M</p>
<h3>ID</h3>
<h3>CP</h3>
<p>-I</p>
<h3>DX</h3>
<p>*</p>
<p>Pa  67  83  44  34  59</p>
<p>lo  .7  .6  .4  .8  .9</p>
<p>Ve  3   5   7   2   4</p>
<p>rd</p>
<p>e</p>
<p>&lt;W</p>
<p>-P</p>
<h3>VP</h3>
<p>-I</p>
<h3>DX</h3>
<p>*</p>
<h3>SP  58  72  39  28  53</h3>
<p>-1  .8  .2  .9  .4  .0</p>
<p>5   2   4   8   4   2</p>
<p>&lt;W</p>
<p>-S</p>
<h3>P1</h3>
<p>5-</p>
<h3>ID</h3>
<h3>X</h3>
<p>*</p>

KOLD

LNGZ

BOIL

<p>U.S. natural gas futures dropped 11% due to milder weather forecasts, while Northeast cash prices surged to record highs amid increased heating demand from an Arctic blast. February futures fell to $6.019 per million British thermal units, despite a recent spike of 119%. In the cash market, prices at the Algonquin Hub reached $173 per million British thermal units, and power prices soared to $1,014 per megawatt hour. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states decreased to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day, with forecasts predicting a further decline in demand next week.</p>

Reuters

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Us 12 Mth Natural Gas

Pro Ultr Natural Gas

US natgas futures fall 11% on less cold forecasts, while Arctic cold boosts Northeast cash prices to record highs