In the "Hong Kong Property" report, the Centaline Valuation Index (CVI) (major banks) fell to 79.72 points weekly

The Central Plains Valuation Index (CVI) (major banks) latest reported at 79.72 points, down 1.75 points week-on-week, ending two consecutive weeks of increase. Yang Ming-yi, Senior Co-Director of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Department, pointed out that after the holiday, large new developments were immediately launched for sale with ideal sales performance, driving the overall market atmosphere to be very active, and banks are also actively offering mortgage discounts. The CVI has remained above 60 points in the "optimistic zone" for 17 consecutive weeks, reflecting that banks' valuation attitudes remain positive, indicating that property prices are expected to continue to improve.

She noted that the Federal Reserve announced today (29th) that it would not cut interest rates this month, but the best lending rate in Hong Kong has returned to historical low levels, and recent interbank rates have softened, allowing banks to offer more favorable mortgage plans. It is expected that the CVI will stabilize around 80 points in the first quarter.

After the government fully lifted restrictions at the end of February 2024, transaction volumes in the property market rebounded, and the CVI rebounded from a low level, while the CCL stabilized after dropping from a low of 143.02 points. The CVI rose for 9 consecutive weeks from 14.49 points, reaching a high of 73.73 points, and remained above 60 points for 6 consecutive weeks, while the CCL escaped from the low and fluctuated narrowly between 144 and 148 points. However, the CVI later fell into the range of 40 to 60 points, where the upward momentum of property prices was hindered, posing a threat of downward adjustment. In early June, the CVI further fell below 40 points, remaining in the pessimistic zone for nearly 20 weeks, reflecting that the property market has entered an adjustment phase. During the same period, property prices continued to adjust downward, evaporating all gains after the lifting of restrictions. After the interest rate cut cycle began in September and following the policy address in October, the CVI rose steadily, surpassing the important thresholds of 40 and 50 points, while property prices stabilized and fluctuated.

In January 2025, U.S. President Trump officially took office, and with the trade war heating up and the Federal Reserve slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts, the global economic and political environment faced new challenges. At the end of January, the CVI ended the previous 13-week period of fluctuating around the 50-point boundary, and in February, it sharply dropped to around 40 points, the lower limit of the boundary, while property prices failed to break through further upward, with the CCL continuing to fluctuate between 136 and 137 points. In early April, as the trade war escalated, the CVI fell back below 40 points into the pessimistic zone, fluctuating below 40 points for five weeks, and property prices also continued to decline slightly. In early May, interbank rates dropped sharply and remained low, with the CVI rising for eight consecutive weeks, stabilizing above 60 points from the end of July to mid-September, while property prices stabilized and slightly increased. After the interest rate cut was resumed in September, the CVI rose for seven consecutive weeks, surpassing and stabilizing at 80 points, with property prices steadily increasing.

The latest Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) is 145.54 points, up 7.68% from the low of 135.16 points during the week when the H interest rate fell below the ceiling interest rate again in May 2025, up 7.9% after the budget relaxed stamp duty, and up 7.12% from the low of 135.86 points before the interest rate cut cycle. Property prices increased by 4.7% for the whole year of 2025, and temporarily increased by 0.99% in 2026