The "Market Review" reports that the Hang Seng Index has risen for seven consecutive days but has not been able to close above 28,000; property stocks are being speculated on

Today is the futures settlement day for Hong Kong stocks, with the market rising for seven consecutive trading days (a cumulative increase of 1,480 points or 5.6%), reaching a four-and-a-half-year high, but failing to stabilize above the 28,000 mark at the close. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, stating that U.S. economic activity is steadily expanding and that there are signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq each rose 0.02% and 0.2% respectively overnight. At the time of writing, the yield on U.S. 2-year bonds rose to 3.577%, and the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds rose to 4.261%, while the U.S. dollar index fell to 96.2. Dow futures rose 63 points or 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures rose 100 points or 0.4%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 6 points or 0.16% to close at 4,157 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.6%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 3.23 trillion RMB. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was in line with market expectations, and the market generally believes that there is significant uncertainty regarding the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, which will depend on inflation trends and the employment market situation.

The Hang Seng Index initially fell and then rebounded today, opening down 199 points, dropping 215 points at one point to a low of 27,611 points, and later rising 229 points to a high of 28,056 points, a new high in over four and a half years. It closed up 141 points or 0.5% at 27,968 points; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 40 points or 0.4% to close at 9,552 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 59 points or 1% to close at 5,841 points. The total trading volume for the day fell over 8% to 331.994 billion HKD. The total trading volume of northbound capital was 132.483 billion HKD, while southbound funds had a net outflow of 4.374 billion HKD today (with a net outflow of 3.427 billion HKD on the previous trading day). The Tracker Fund (02800.HK) rose 0.5%, with a trading volume of 16.038 billion HKD. Alibaba (09988.HK) fell 0.1% to close at 173.3 HKD, with a trading volume of 11.67 billion HKD. Chip stocks were weak, with Hua Hong (01347.HK) down 5.3% and SMIC (00981.HK) down 2.6%.

Spot gold once approached 5,600 USD per ounce, currently reported at 5,512 USD, up 1.7%. Silver futures broke through 120 USD per ounce in the afternoon, continuing to reach new highs, while spot silver fell 0.16% to 116.56 USD per ounce. China Silver (00815.HK) saw its stock price decline by 7.4%. Zijin (02899.HK) rose 3.1%, while Zijin International Gold (02259.HK) fell 3.3%.

【Hang Seng Index Rises for Seven Consecutive Days, Property Stocks Surge】

It is rumored that several domestic property companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, leading to a significant surge in property stocks. Country Garden (02007.HK) rose over 16%, while other property stocks such as Hopson Development (01813.HK) soared nearly 41%, Aoyuan (03883.HK) jumped 33%, and Sunac (01918.HK) surged 29%. Shimao (00813.HK), CIFI (00884.HK), Kaisa (01638.HK), R&F Properties (02777.HK), and Longfor (03380.HK) rose between 19% and 23% Yajule (03383.HK) rose 15.1%. China Overseas (00688.HK) and Longfor (00960.HK) increased by 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively.

JP Morgan released a report stating that the stock prices of domestic property companies rose this morning, with market speculation suggesting it may be due to the mainland authorities no longer requiring developers to report their compliance with the "three red lines" on a monthly basis. However, the bank believes that this news alone is insufficient to explain the market movement, as authorities had stopped requiring developers to report regularly several years ago (i.e., this is not new information). Nevertheless, the bank does not rule out the possibility that this increase was driven by other market rumors, but at the time of writing the report, it did not have relevant information. Regarding the domestic property sector, the bank reiterated that its performance may continue to outperform the market until the "Two Sessions" in March and the Central Political Bureau meeting in April. For struggling private developers, regardless of the "three red lines," the core issues remain liquidity and survival. Without additional funding support from domestic banks, merely relaxing financial indicators will not change the situation. For state-owned developers, theoretically, this may allow them to leverage more for land purchases. However, in the current market environment, the bank believes that central enterprises do not have a strong willingness to leverage, but will instead remain prudent and continue to comply with the "three red lines."

In addition, the General Office of the State Council recently issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption," which mentions travel and residence services. It aims to cultivate a batch of travel destination cities (regions). It encourages qualified localities to leverage relevant fiscal funds and industrial funds to improve the infrastructure of travel destinations and promote the upgrading and transformation of existing facilities. It aims to legally activate and make good use of idle rural land and houses. It encourages localities to implement policies to digest existing real estate and support land and service facility construction for travel projects. It guides qualified localities to develop niche markets for travel and residence, cultivate high-quality travel destinations and public area brands, strengthen regional coordination and cooperation in travel areas, and support travel destinations in moderately expanding public service supply based on market demand.

【Market breadth slightly weakens, Sands China declines】

The Hong Kong stock market breadth slightly weakened, with a rise and fall ratio of 27 to 25 for main board stocks (compared to 32 to 21 the previous day), and 1,136 stocks rising (an increase of 3.3%). Today, 54 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index rose, while 29 fell, with a rise and fall ratio of 61 to 33 (compared to 90 to 8 the previous day). The market recorded short selling of HKD 39.891 billion, accounting for 13.699% of the total turnover of HKD 291.183 billion for shortable stocks.

Sands China (01928.HK) saw its stock price drop nearly 8% to HKD 17.34, while Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) fell 4% to HKD 40.5. Citigroup released a report stating that Sands China's fourth-quarter performance last year was generally in line with the bank's expectations, with net revenue increasing by 16% year-on-year to USD 2.058 billion (up 8% quarter-on-quarter), and property EBITDA increasing by 6% year-on-year to USD 608 million (up 1% quarter-on-quarter), which was generally in line with the bank's original forecast of USD 616 million, but 3% lower than the market consensus expectation of USD 628 million. Adjusting for luck factors, last quarter's property EBITDA would be USD 582 million The adjusted EBITDA profit margin decreased by approximately 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to about 28.9%.

Citigroup expects higher operating expenses to reappear at Sands China over the next four years (2026 to 2029), but remains confident that Sands China's EBITDA profit margin can reach the low 30% range. It reiterates its "Buy" rating and, based on a comprehensive valuation, lowers the target price from HKD 24.25 to HKD 23