Gas futures rise as LNG export flows increase
Output rises after Arctic blast
LSEG projects gas demand to fall, storage levels drop below normal
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 5% on Friday as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants increased, including the likely return of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas.
That price increase came despite forecasts for less cold weather and less heating demand over the week than previously expected, as well as a rise in output as frozen wells thaw after this week’s Arctic blast boosted heating demand to near-record levels and gas futures by a record 140% over seven days.
Gas futures for March delivery (NGc1) on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 19.2 cents, or 4.9%, to $4.11 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
That put futures on track to drop about 22% for the week after gaining a record 70% last week.
For the month, futures were on track to rise about 12% after collapsing about 24% last month.
<h3>SUPPLY AND DEMAND</h3>
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states dropped to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
Daily output, however, was on track to rise for a fifth day in a row to 105.7 bcfd on Friday after collapsing to a two-year low of 92.5 bcfd on Sunday due mostly to freezing wells in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, according to LSEG data. That output figure compares with a recent high of 110.0 bcfd on January 12 and an all-time daily high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.
Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 14, though not nearly as cold as the weekend of January 24-25.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 170.7 bcfd this week to 156.5 bcfd next week and 146.6 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Analysts projected energy firms likely pulled so much gas out of storage to meet near-record demand during the Arctic blast this week that stockpiles would go from around 5% above normal for this time of year during the week ended January 23 to about 1% below normal during the week ended January 30. (EIA/GAS) (NGAS/POLL)
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.7 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to rise for a fourth day in a row to 17.9 bcfd on Friday after dropping to a one-year low of 11.5 bcfd on Monday due to reductions at almost all plants during the winter storm.
Week Week Year Five-ye
ended ended ago ar
Jan 30 Jan 23 Jan average
Forecas Actual 30 (2021-2
t 025)
Jan 30
U.S. weekly -352 -242 -155 -190
natgas storage
change (bcf):
U.S. total natgas 2,471 2,823 2,422 2,490
in storage (bcf):
U.S. total -0.8% +5.3%
storage versus
5-year average
Global Gas Current Prior This Prior Five-Ye
Benchmark Futures Day Day Month Year ar
($ per mmBtu) Last Average Average
Year 2025 (2021-2
025)
Henry Hub (NGc1) 3.86 3.92 3.72 3.62 3.79
Title Transfer 13.65 14.02 14.67 11.94 18.51
Facility (TTF)
(TRNLTTFMc1)
Japan-Korea 11.47 11.29 14.16 12.24 18.12
Marker (JKM)
(JKMc1)
LSEG U.S. Global
Forecast System
(GFS) Heating,
Cooling and Total
Degree Days
Two-Week Total Current Prior Prior 10-Year 30-Year
Forecast Day Day Year Norm Norm
U.S. GFS Heating 490 518 375 427 432
Degree Days (HDD)
U.S. GFS Cooling 3 3 11 4 3
Degree Days (CDD)
U.S. GFS Total 493 521 386 431 435
Degree Days (TDD)
LSEG U.S. Weekly
GFS Supply and
Demand Forecasts
Prior Current Next This Five-Ye
Week Week Week Week ar
Last (2021-2
Year 025)
Average
for
Month
U.S. Supply
(bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry 107.4 98.9 100.7 105.3 98.6
Production
U.S. Imports from 10.3 11.9 9.1 N/A 9.6
Canada
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 117.8 110.9 109.8 N/A 108.3
U.S. Demand
(bcfd)
U.S. Exports to 2.9 2.5 2.8 N/A 2.9
Canada
U.S. Exports to 6.0 6.3 5.9 N/A 5.8
Mexico
U.S. LNG Export 18.8 15.3 17.9 14.8 12.8
Feedgas
U.S. Commercial 19.9 24.6 21.1 16.7 17.3
U.S. Residential 33.7 43.4 33.9 28.4 29.9
U.S. Power Plant 35.2 41.4 37.2 34.4 32.5
U.S. Industrial 26.7 28.2 27.1 25.3 26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.3 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.2
U.S. Pipe 3.3 3.9 3.5 3.3 4.4
Distribution
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. 124.2 146.6 129.8 113.5 115.5
Consumption
Total U.S. Demand 151.9 170.7 156.5 N/A 137.0
N/A = Not
Available
U.S. Northwest 2026 2026 P 2025 2024 2023
River Forecast Current rior % of % of % of
Center (NWRFC) at Day % Day % Norma Normal Normal
The Dalles Dam of of l Actual Actual
(Fiscal year Normal Normal Actua
ending Sep 30) Forecas Forecas l
t t
Apr-Sep 91 92 76 74 83
Jan-Jul 91 91 78 76 77
Oct-Sep 96 96 80 77 76
U.S. weekly power
generation
percent by fuel -
<h3>EIA</h3>
Week Week 2025 2024 2023
ended ended
Jan 30 Jan 23
Wind 8 12 11 11 10
Solar 4 4 6 5 4
Hydro 6 7 6 6 6
Other 1 1 1 1 2
Petroleum 2 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 40 37 40 42 41
Coal 23 20 18 16 17
Nuclear 17 19 18 19 19
SNL U.S. Natural
Gas Next-Day
Prices ($ per
mmBtu)
Hub Current Prior This Prior Five-Ye
Day Day Month Year ar
Last Average Average
Year 2025 (2021-2
025)
Henry Hub 10.25 9.34 4.13 3.52 3.72
(NG-W-HH-SNL)
Transco Z6 New 41.01 39.76 8.77 3.53 3.56
York
(NG-CG-NY-SNL)
PG&amp;E Citygate 2.26 2.49 3.87 3.42 5.47
(NG-CG-PGE-SNL)
Eastern Gas (old 8.48 9.05 3.74 2.79 2.96
Dominion South)
(NG-PCN-APP-SNL)
Chicago Citygate 11.84 12.22 3.93 3.23 3.60
(NG-CG-CH-SNL)
Algonquin 33.75 48.40 15.67 6.08 5.04
Citygate
(NG-CG-BS-SNL)
SoCal Citygate 2.92 3.48 4.49 3.60 5.71
(NG-SCL-CGT-SNL)
Waha Hub 1.36 3.05 3.27 1.15 2.88
(NG-WAH-WTX-SNL)
<h3>AECO 1.36 1.52 1.22 1.13 2.13</h3>
(NG-ASH-ALB-SNL)
ICE U.S. Power
Next-Day Prices
($ per
megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Prior This Prior Five-Ye
Day Day Month Year ar
Last Average Average
Year 2025 (2021-2
025)
New England 303.94 366.25 147.8 77.61 61.79
(E-NEPLMHP-IDX) 8
PJM West 370.26 482.08 75.11 60.23 54.47
(E-PJWHRTP-IX)
Mid C 22.95 27.93 52.79 44.81 68.96
(W-MIDCP-IDX)
Palo Verde 19.22 28.69 44.47 34.82 59.94
(W-PVP-IDX)
<h3>SP-15 21.49 25.57 39.98 28.44 53.02</h3>
(W-SP15-IDX)

BOIL

LNGZ

U.S. natural gas futures rose by approximately 5% due to increased flows to LNG export plants, despite forecasts of reduced heating demand. The price for March delivery reached $4.11 per million British thermal units. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states decreased to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day in January, while daily output is expected to rise. LSEG projects a decline in gas demand over the next two weeks, with storage levels dropping below normal as firms withdrew gas to meet high demand during recent cold weather.

US natural gas futures climb 5% on rising flows to LNG export plants