Europe just started building a 'kill switch' for U.S. tech - and the market isn't priced for it, says this strategist

By Jamie Chisholm Zoom and Microsoft are among those companies that could lose business, says Matthew Tuttle Europe is hitting the kills witch on some U.S. tech The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed has taken the sails out of the idea that the U.S. dollar would sink. But Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management, thinks investors are missing the big issue regarding a shift away from U.S. assets. In a note released Monday, Tuttle says most investors have explained the reason why international and emerging market equities have been outperforming the U.S. of late by using what he calls lazy narratives, such as valuations, mean reversion, and the dollar. Those matter, but they're not the main event, he reckons. "The main event is this: the world is building optionality away from U.S. policy and platform dependence. And once you see it, you can't unsee it - because it's showing up in procurement decisions, supply chains, defense budgets, and capital flows," Tuttle says. This trend has meant big gains for European defense stocks for example, as the Trump administration is no longer seen as a reliable military ally. But there is another important shift underway, Tuttle reckons: "It's digital sovereignty - and it's quietly becoming the civilian version of rearmament." From Europe's perspective, digital sovereignty means that if relations with the U.S. worsen then communications and core systems can't just be turned off. "If alliances wobble, we control our own pipes," he believes is the continent's thinking. And this is not just theory. France is pushing state workers to stop using Zoom to "guarantee the security, confidentiality and resilience of public electronic communications." And Tuttle notes that the German state of Schleswig-Holstein has been moving public-sector workflows away from Microsoft-dependent infrastructure toward open-source / European-controlled solutions. "If defense is Europe's 'hard power' rebuild, EuroStack-style thinking is the 'soft power' rebuild: a push toward a European-controlled tech stack across compute, cloud, security, and apps," says Tuttle. The European companies that he thinks may benefit from this shift are OVH Groupe (FR:OVH) for the sovereign cloud focus; IONOS (XE:IOS) for hosting/infrastructure; Orange (FR:ORA) for "pipes" and government relationships; Deutsche Telekom (XE:DTE) for pipes and public sector relevance; and Capgemini (FR:CAP), which could be the migration/integration winner in a forced-switch world. The reason these companies' services can become more attractive than market-leading U.S. peers is that "procurement becomes political, and 'good enough + sovereign' can beat 'best-in-class + foreign-controlled' in regulated lanes," Tuttle reckons. Thus, the European space-based tech offerings of Eutelsat Communications (FR:ETL) and SES DE:SES may also find favor. Of course, all this means that there may be relative U.S. losers. Tuttle highlights Zoom Communications (ZM), Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL). "This isn't 'the end' of U.S. tech in Europe - but it is a real headwind where procurement becomes sovereignty policy...[they lose] not because the products stopped working - because dependency became the risk," says Tuttle. To see how this trend is developing, investors should keep an eye out for four signs, Tuttle writes: -- More government procurement mandates (not speeches) across Germany, France, Nordics, and EU institutions; -- Sovereign-cloud standards tightening; -- Defense-tech spillover into civilian infrastructure budgets; -- Evidence that U.S.-China tension is causing persistent trade rerouting rather than one-off noise. Tuttle's thesis can be summarized best by the title of his note: "Europe Just Started Building a 'Kill Switch' for U.S. Tech - And the Market Isn't Priced for It." The markets U.S. stock-index futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are lower as benchmark Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y dip. The dollar index DXY is slightly higher, while oil prices (CL.1) declined. Gold (GC00) and silver (SI00) futures briefly fell sharply for a second session but then reversed course. The buzz The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ00) are leading declines after a report that Nvidia's (NVDA) mooted investment in OpenAI may not be as big as once hoped. Oracle shares (ORCL) are lower after the company said it is looking to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 to pay for its cloud buildup. Companies reporting earnings on Monday include Walt Disney (DIS) before the opening bell and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) after the close. U.S. economic data due Monday include the S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for January, released at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, and the ISM manufacturing survey for January at 10 a.m. Fed officials making comments include Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic taking part in a moderated discussion at 12:30 p.m. Best of the web 'Spy Sheik' bought secret stake in Trump company. Metals traders lose at least $144 million as 'Hat' flees China. The wild markets behind Polymarket's 'Truth Machine'. The chart Source: Bianco Research Ten percent of outstanding bitcoin is held by Strategy and at 11 spot bitcoin exchange traded funds, according to Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. "These are the ways normies hold bitcoin in regulated brokerage accounts," he says. "Collectively, the average purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now around $8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of around $7 billion," Bianco calculates. Related: Michael Saylor's Strategy sees bitcoin holdings trade below purchase price Top tickers Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern. Random reads A rug pull of the non-financial kind. Lizard in a blizzard. When extreme snow clearance goes wrong. -Jamie Chisholm This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (END) Dow Jones Newswires 02-02-26 0648ET