Breakfast | Three major indices rise, storage concept stocks soar, SanDisk up over 15%

Market Overview U.S. manufacturing activity exceeded expectations, with the three major U.S. stock indices rebounding, the Dow Jones rising over 1% to a one-week high. Apple rose about 4%, leading the tech giants, Google rebounded nearly 2% to reach an all-time high, while Nvidia, embroiled in OpenAI investment doubts, fell nearly 3%; storage concept stocks surged, with SanDisk rising over 15%, Western Digital up nearly 8%, and Seagate Technology up over 6%; Disney, with weak guidance this season, fell over 7%; U.S. Antimony Corporation (UAMY) rose over 7%; Bitcoin plummeted during the session, dragging down the "big holder" Strategy by nearly 7%; Palantir surged in after-hours trading, once rising over 8%, while NXP Semiconductors fell over 6% in after-hours trading due to disappointing automotive business revenue. After the U.S. manufacturing index was released, U.S. Treasury yields hit a daily high; the U.S. dollar index accelerated to a one-week high. The offshore RMB rose above 6.94 during the session, approaching a nearly three-year high. Cryptocurrencies turned to gains during the session, with Bitcoin rebounding over 6% after briefly dropping below $75,000, and Ethereum rising over 10% from its daily low. Metals plummeted during the session, with gold dropping below $4,500 to create a new low in at least three weeks, London spot gold once fell 10%, and spot silver briefly dropped over 10%, later narrowing more than half of its decline; London tin fell 10%, marking three consecutive declines, London nickel dropped over 6% to a four-week low, and London copper fell over 2% to a more than one-week low. Crude oil fell for two consecutive days to a one-week low, at least down over 4%, marking the largest decline in seven months, while U.S. natural gas fell over 25%. During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell over 2%, narrowly holding above 4,000 points, with gold, silver, and non-ferrous metals all hitting the limit down, while liquor stocks rose against the trend, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3%, and semiconductor stocks plummeted. Key News China China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.3, with sales prices rising for the first time in 14 months. Li Qiang: Utilize artificial intelligence technology to reshape the entire production and manufacturing chain, and promote the construction of a new energy system in a coordinated manner. Overseas The U.S. January ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations, reaching the highest level since February 2022. The U.S. government shutdown has caused key data to be "delayed" again, with the December JOLTS job openings report and non-farm payroll report rescheduled for release on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. Trump: The U.S. and India have reached a trade agreement, reducing India's reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 18%, and Modi agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil. Reports: Trump plans to invest $12 billion to reserve key minerals, with U.S. antimony stocks rising over 7%. Hassett: Nominating Waller as Federal Reserve Chairman is the "right person at the right time," and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be "as streamlined as possible." U.S. presidential envoy reportedly met with Iranian foreign minister on Friday, with Iran emphasizing the core demand of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks: lifting sanctions. Oracle launches $25 billion bond issuance, planning to raise funds in eight parts, fully sprinting towards cloud infrastructure. SpaceX memo confirms merger with xAI; Tesla's third-generation humanoid robot Optimus Q1 debuts, aiming for an annual production of one million units; Musk: significant breakthrough in lithium batteries, Tesla achieves large-scale production of dry electrode batteries. Palantir's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations with a 70% year-on-year increase, and the full-year guidance for 2026 significantly surpassed expectations, rising over 8% in after-hours trading. NXP Semiconductors Q4 revenue and Q1 guidance slightly exceeded expectations, but Q4 automotive business lagged, with stock price dropping over 6% in after-hours trading. Media reports that OpenAI is dissatisfied with the inference performance of NVIDIA chips, having started to look for alternatives last year. Market Closing Report U.S. and European Stock Markets: S&P 500 rose 0.54%, closing at 6976.44 points; Dow Jones rose 1.05%, closing at 49407.66 points; Nasdaq rose 0.56%, closing at 23592.107 points. The European STOXX 600 index rose 1.03%, closing at 617.31 points. A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.48%, at 4015.75 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 2.69%, at 13824.35 points. The ChiNext Index closed down 2.46%, at 3264.11 points. The CSI 300 closed down 2.13%, at 4605.98 points. Bond Market: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury was about 4.28%, up about 4 basis points during the day; the yield on the 2-year Treasury was about 3.57%, up about 5 basis points during the day. Commodities: WTI March crude oil futures closed down 4.71%, at $62.14 per barrel. Brent April crude oil futures closed down 4.36%, at $66.30 per barrel. COMEX April gold futures closed down 1.95%, at $4652.6 per ounce. COMEX March silver futures closed down 1.94%, at $77.009 per ounce. LME tin closed down about 10.3%, at $46591 per ton. LME nickel closed down about 6.3%, at $16827 per ton. LME copper closed down about 2.1%, at $12892 per ton. Key News Details Global Highlights China China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.3, sales prices rise for the first time in 14 months. China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI is at a three-month high, with positive signals including growth in new orders (including export orders) and an increase in employment for the first time in three months; however, corporate confidence has dropped to a nine-month low, and input costs have seen the strongest increase in four months, forcing product sales prices to rise for the first time in 14 months. Li Qiang: Utilize artificial intelligence technology to reshape the entire production and manufacturing chain, and promote the construction of a new energy system. Li Qiang stated that while maintaining scale advantages, more emphasis should be placed on technological innovation to promote the iteration and upgrading of technological products. According to the development needs of related industries, continuous increases in R&D investment should be made to constantly enhance the quality of supply. It is necessary to strengthen the coordinated use of regional energy, promote the interconnection of pipeline facilities, optimize heating measurement methods, accelerate the research and application of green low-carbon technologies, and convert industrial waste heat into stable and clean heat sources. Overseas US January ISM Manufacturing Index hits a new high since February 2022, significantly exceeding expectations! The US January ISM Manufacturing PMI index surged from 47.9 the previous month to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5. This was mainly driven by robust growth in new orders and output. The employment index reached a new high in a year but remains in the contraction zone. The price payment index hit a four-month high. Non-farm payroll report delayed again, US government shutdown causes key data to be "late" again. On February 2 local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that due to a partial "shutdown" of the federal government, the non-farm payroll report for January, originally scheduled for release on the 6th, will not be published on time. Emily Liddell, an official in charge at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, stated in a release: "The report will be rescheduled for release after government funding is restored." Non-farm annual employment may be revised down by 1 million, US employment is being systematically overestimated. Barclays and Citigroup believe that the issue with US employment is not about "how many new jobs were added in January," but rather how much has been "overestimated cumulatively over the past year." Barclays pointed out based on the latest QCEW data that average monthly employment has been overestimated by 80,000 to 90,000 over the past year; Citigroup indicated that signals truly reflecting the downward trend are more likely to emerge concentrated in the spring and summer stages. Similarly, due to the partial shutdown of the Trump administration, the December JOLTS job openings report, originally scheduled for release this Tuesday, will also be postponed Trump: The US and India have reached a trade agreement that will lower Indian tariffs, Modi agrees to stop purchasing Russian oil. Trump stated that the "reciprocal tariff" from the US to India will be reduced from 25% to 18%, and India will correspondingly lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the US until they reach zero, while committing to purchase over $500 billion worth of US energy and other products, and may also buy Venezuelan oil. Media reports indicate that Indian officials have confirmed plans to purchase $500 billion worth of US goods over the next five years, and the US side will revoke the 25% tariff on India. Report: Trump plans to invest $12 billion in critical mineral reserves. The critical mineral reserve plan that Trump aims to launch will establish the first private sector commercial inventory for US manufacturers to hedge against supply chain risks. The plan will provide $10 billion in loans through the Export-Import Bank of the United States and introduce private capital to procure and store strategic minerals such as gallium and cobalt. Following the report, US rare earth company USAR and US antimony company UAMY both saw initial gains of over 10%, with the former turning negative by midday and the latter closing up over 7%. Hassett: Nominating Waller as Fed Chair is "the right time to choose the right person," Fed's balance sheet should be "as lean as possible". Hassett described Waller as a "data-driven, independent" candidate, suggesting that this nominee will formulate monetary policy with an objective attitude rather than being influenced by political factors. Hassett also warned that if data changes significantly and inflation rises suddenly, there will be no room for interest rates to drop to as low as 1%. US presidential envoy reportedly met with Iranian foreign minister on Friday, Iran emphasizes core demands in US-Iran nuclear talks: lifting sanctions. Iranian media reported that the Iranian president has ordered the initiation of nuclear negotiations, and Iran may hold high-level talks with the US in the coming days. US media stated that US presidential envoy Wietekow met with the Iranian foreign minister to discuss a "possible nuclear agreement." The US Secretary of Defense stated that if the Iranian government refuses to negotiate with the US regarding its nuclear program, the US is "fully prepared" to take action. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized that Iran seeks a fair and reciprocal negotiation outcome and will never make unilateral concessions without corresponding economic relief. Oracle launches $25 billion bond issuance, plans to raise funds in eight parts, fully sprinting towards cloud infrastructure. Oracle has officially launched a financing plan of up to $50 billion, which includes an initial bond issuance of approximately $25 billion. This bond issuance will be conducted in eight parts, led by top investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, and is intended to be a one-time issuance within 2026, aimed at funding its "heavy asset gamble" towards AI cloud infrastructure. Oracle initially rose 4% but later turned negative Elon Musk's Space Exploration Company SpaceX confirms merger with xAI. Tesla's third-generation humanoid robot Optimus Q1 debuts, aiming for an annual production of one million units, Model S/X to halt production in Q2 to make way for mass production of robots. The third-generation Optimus is Tesla's first humanoid robot aimed at mass production, with a target annual capacity of 1 million units. CEO Elon Musk stated last week during the earnings call that production of the Model S and Model X will cease in the second quarter of 2026, with the production line at the Fremont factory being transformed into an Optimus production line. Musk: Major breakthrough in lithium batteries, Tesla achieves large-scale production of dry electrode batteries. Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed that the company has conquered and achieved large-scale production of the dry electrode process, which he described as a "significant advancement" in lithium battery production technology. This technology eliminates traditional toxic solvents and expensive drying steps, significantly reducing manufacturing costs and energy consumption, and is expected to enhance battery energy density and lifespan, providing crucial support for Tesla's cost and efficiency advantages in the electric vehicle and rapidly growing energy storage business. Palantir Q4 revenue exceeded expectations with a 70% year-on-year increase, 2026 full-year guidance significantly exceeded expectations, and shares rose over 8% in after-hours trading. NXP Q4 revenue and guidance slightly exceeded expectations, but automotive business lagged, and shares fell over 6% in after-hours trading. Media reports indicate that OpenAI is dissatisfied with the inference performance of NVIDIA chips and has been seeking alternatives since last year. Research Report Highlights Japan bets on fiscal expansion, while the U.S. faces a midterm test; how will the election year reshape global markets? The year 2026 will see the world enter a "super election year," with Japan's early elections potentially initiating aggressive fiscal expansion, increasing pressure on the U.S.-Japan bond markets; the U.S. midterm elections will be a critical test for Trump's administration, with the cost of living issue influencing polls. From the right-wing resurgence in Latin America to policy shifts in Europe and frontier markets, political uncertainty is fundamentally reshaping global investment logic and risk appetite. Is a "new contract" coming for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury? Walsh's focus on balance sheet reduction may make liquidity reality the biggest stumbling block. Trump has nominated Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, whose core proposition is to push the Fed to significantly reduce its massive $6.6 trillion balance sheet and seek a new agreement with the Treasury to clarify the boundaries of central bank independence and prevent fiscal monetization Treasurer Bessenet holds a similar position. However, this radical plan faces significant real-world resistance, including market "panic" triggered by previous rounds of quantitative tightening, the potential to push up long-term interest rates, and the current banking system's reliance on high reserves. The market expects Waller to adopt an extremely cautious and gradual strategy, establishing a close collaborative framework with the Treasury. Gold Approaches First Key Support Level. After experiencing a sharp pullback, gold prices are nearing the first key support level—around $4,600 per ounce (fluctuating by $50 up or down), and whether it holds is crucial for maintaining the bullish structure. However, the major risk facing the market is that a mere 5% retreat from the massive profit-taking stock (approximately $20 trillion) would be enough to offset global physical demand. As a result, institutions like Citigroup are turning cautious in the medium term, expecting gold prices to fall back to $4,000 by 2027. Is This the Most Vulnerable Moment for Gold? A 5% Exit from Profit-Taking Could Offset Global Physical Demand. Citigroup warns that the gold bull market, driven by $1 trillion of hot money, is facing the "Sword of Damocles"! The current market profit-taking stock is as high as $20 trillion, and a 5% sell-off could offset global physical demand. With geopolitical risks receding and the confirmation of the Federal Reserve's independence, Citigroup is bearish on the second half of 2026, predicting a 20% drop in gold prices to $4,000 by 2027. After the "Epic Shock" in Gold and Silver, Is It Time to Buy the Dip? The consensus is: it is not advisable to blindly buy the dip at this moment. Although the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, short-term selling pressure persists, and volatility is immense. Analysts from multiple institutions, including Huatai Securities, suggest maintaining patience, waiting for market volatility to significantly decrease from extreme highs (such as gold IV at 35%), and observing stabilization signals at key support levels (such as gold at $4,700 per ounce) to avoid catching a falling knife during an "avalanche." What is the Biggest Narrative Change in AI for 2026? The industry focus is shifting from training to the reasoning phase that can truly deliver investment returns. Bank of America believes that while training remains important, 2026 may mark the year when reasoning becomes a larger workload, ultimately accounting for the majority share or 75% of the projected $1.2 trillion AI capital expenditure by 2030. Domestic Macro Ten Departments Jointly Issue Document to Promote the Construction of Low-Altitude Economic Standard System. Recently, ten departments jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Construction of Low-Altitude Economic Standard System (2025 Edition)," aiming to promote high-quality development of the entire industry chain through standardization. The "Guidelines" focus on five major areas: aircraft, infrastructure, air traffic control, safety supervision, and application scenarios, constructing a "four-dimensional integration" standard supply system The goal is to basically establish a standard system by 2027 and form more than 300 advanced and compatible international standards by 2030 to support the safe and healthy development of the low-altitude economy. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu visits China, commissioned by President Putin for strategic communication. According to Global Times, Wang Yi met with Shoigu in Beijing, stating that China and Russia have the responsibility and obligation to practice true multilateralism and promote the construction of a more just and reasonable global governance system. China and Russia should maintain close communication on major issues concerning bilateral relations and increase mutual support on issues involving each other's core interests. Shoigu stated that he was sent by Putin to China for strategic communication. The Russian side has always adhered to the One China principle, closely monitors the actions of hostile forces that undermine stability in the Taiwan Strait, and firmly opposes Japan's accelerated militarization plans. Domestic Companies/Industries Moutai sales exceed expectations, the liquor sector surges: Is a ten-year bottom forming? Behind the surge in the liquor sector is the strong recovery of Moutai's pricing and the dual resonance of market-oriented reforms. CITIC Securities believes that with the easing of real estate policies and the positive expectations for PPI, the liquor sector's valuation is at a historical low, possessing strong bottom configuration value. Attention should also be paid to consumer policy catalysts, as the liquor sector may welcome a ten-year bottom investment opportunity around the Spring Festival. Overseas Macro Bitcoin falls below $80,000, ushering in a new round of "trust crisis". Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell below $76,000, setting a record for the longest consecutive monthly decline since 2018. The Bitcoin market continues to decline, and the price drop has not sparked enthusiasm for bottom fishing, while regulatory benefits cannot mask weak demand. The trends in AI and precious metals have intensified competition for funds, weakening Bitcoin's appeal as a risk hedging tool and speculative target. Bitcoin continues to plummet, is MSTR forced to sell becoming the focus?. MicroStrategy and 11 spot ETFs hold a total of 10% of the circulating supply, with an average cost as high as $85,360, currently facing an overall floating loss of about $7 billion. MicroStrategy's average cost is about $76,000, with a safety cushion narrowed to less than 3%, yet it still raised the preferred stock dividend to 11.25% to attract funds to continue purchasing Bitcoin. Jim Bianco warned that the narrative of "old money entering the market" has failed, and in the absence of new buying, the positions of institutions trapped at high levels may turn into sustained selling pressure. As if it couldn't get worse, commodity crash drags down Indonesian stock market by 6%. The Jakarta Composite Index plummeted by 6%, with mining and energy stocks being the biggest drag. As an important commodity-exporting country, Indonesia's stock market is highly sensitive to commodity prices, which poses a severe test for the market confidence restoration efforts just initiated by regulators Overseas Companies Disney's Q1 revenue for FY2026 increased by 5% year-on-year, net profit declined by 6%, entertainment and sports segments dragged down profitability. Disney's Q1 revenue for FY2026 increased by 5% to USD 25.98 billion, while net profit declined by 6% to USD 2.4 billion. The growth was mainly driven by the experiences segment (theme parks and cruise business), which accounted for over 70% of operating profit; profits in the entertainment and sports segments fell by 35% and 23%, respectively, due to rising content costs, weak advertising, and subscription pressures. Cash flow contracted due to concentrated tax payments and increased content investments, while the company maintained a positive shareholder return and focused on content renewal risks and multiple legal litigations. Today's News Preview Shanghai Futures Exchange: Adjusting the price limit for silver futures to 17%, and the margin ratio for maintaining positions is adjusted to 18%. Australia's policy interest rate. France's January CPI. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will deliver a speech. AMD and Pfizer will announce their earnings