India-U.S. Trade Tensions Ease, Boosting India's Global Export Share

Economists from ANZ Bank's research department have indicated that the easing of trade tensions between India and the United States is likely to enhance India's share in global exports. According to Jin10, they highlighted that India's 18% reciprocal tariff rate helps narrow the gap between its exporters and those from other Asian economies. While India is unlikely to see a complete removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers by the U.S., especially in sensitive sectors like agriculture, it may reduce its imports of Russian crude oil and significantly increase energy purchases from the U.S. The Indian government has committed to purchasing over $500 billion worth of U.S. goods, which is more likely a long-term commitment rather than an immediate shift. ANZ Bank projects India's GDP growth rate to be between 6.8% and 7% for the fiscal year ending in March 2027.