Anglo American's copper production in Q4 decreased by 14% year-on-year, lowering the copper production guidance for 2027

Due to a decline in production in the fourth quarter of 2025, Anglo American has lowered its copper production forecast for 2027. On Thursday, the company revised its 2027 copper production guidance from the previous expectation of 760,000 to 820,000 tons down to 750,000 to 810,000 tons. This adjustment is primarily due to a year-on-year drop of 14% in its fourth-quarter copper production, which only recorded 170,000 tons. The downward revision of production guidance not only reflects the ongoing production pressures faced by the group in major producing regions such as Chile but may also further impact the global copper market's supply-demand balance. As a core raw material for electrification and renewable energy infrastructure, the stability of copper supply is increasingly drawing market attention. This production downgrade coincides with a critical phase in the acceleration of the global energy transition process. As a core raw material for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and grid upgrades, the supply-demand balance of copper is becoming increasingly tight. The ongoing output challenges faced by major producers may further exacerbate market concerns about structural shortages and have a cascading effect on the costs and capacity deployment pace in downstream clean energy and infrastructure sectors. Analysis indicates that, against the backdrop of frequent operational obstacles in Latin American mining areas and the delayed global mining capital expenditure cycle, the production fluctuations of leading companies are becoming an important variable affecting commodity pricing and the energy transition process. Meanwhile, the company issued a warning in another business line, indicating that the current weakness in the diamond market may lead to impairment charges for the full year. In the context of an increasingly complex global macroeconomic landscape, large diversified mining groups are facing diverse structural challenges and performance growth pressures across commodity sectors. Performance Divergence in Other Product Lines Against the backdrop of overall operational pressure on Anglo American, its various business segments are showing significant divergence. Iron ore has become one of the few bright spots, with fourth-quarter production increasing from 14.3 million tons to 15.1 million tons; nickel production also saw a slight increase, rising 3% year-on-year to 10,300 tons. However, the diamond business is facing severe challenges. Due to weak market demand, the group has implemented maintenance-related suspensions at its Jwaneng and Orapa mines in Botswana, resulting in a sharp 35% decline in fourth-quarter diamond production, which only recorded 3.8 million carats. The company has clearly warned that the current diamond market environment may impact the full-year performance. At the same time, the steelmaking coal business continues to weaken, with fourth-quarter production declining 15% year-on-year to 2.1 million tons, further exacerbating the overall output pressure on the group