As the demand for electricity surges in AI data centers, gas turbines have become critical bottleneck equipment. The capacity crunch faced by gas turbine manufacturer GE Vernova has evolved into a &#34;booking war,&#34; where customers need to pay non-refundable deposits four years in advance for deliveries in 2030. The gas turbine manufacturing sector is entering a rare boom cycle.
The company's stock price hit a new high on Monday, with a cumulative increase of over 500% since its spin-off from GE Aerospace at the beginning of 2024.
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On Monday, Canadian power producer Maxim Power announced a sales reservation agreement with GE Vernova to &#34;reserve a manufacturing slot for one 7HA.02 gas turbine and generator set.&#34; According to the agreement, Maxim must pay a non-refundable deposit by 2026, while the specific price of the turbine will be determined through future negotiations.
This model of paying a deposit to secure a position and negotiating the price later reflects the strong position of suppliers in the market.
GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik stated on January 28 that the company's backlog is expected to reach 100 gigawatts by the end of this year, at which point the capacities for 2029 and 2030 will be essentially sold out.
The imbalance between supply and demand is directly reflected in stock performance. GE Vernova's stock rose 2.9% on Monday, closing at $801.54, reaching a new 52-week high during the day. The surge in electricity demand has also prompted Wall Street to significantly raise profit expectations, with analysts currently estimating that the company's EBITDA will approach $17 billion by 2030, compared to just around $9 billion a year ago.
<h2>Capacity Crunch: Backlog Orders Approaching Capacity Limits</h2>
GE Vernova's capacity crunch has reached unprecedented levels. As of the end of 2025, the company's backlog of gas power orders has reached 83 gigawatts, while the company's annual production capacity has only increased to 20 gigawatts this year. Based on this calculation, existing orders have filled the production line for more than four years into the future.
The reservation and deposit system has been GE Vernova's regular business model, but the company is selling out its capacity for the end of this decade at an unexpected speed. The increase from 83 gigawatts to an expected 100 gigawatts by the end of the year means that approximately 17 gigawatts of new orders will be added in 2026, equivalent to nearly a year's worth of the company's capacity.
Earlier this month, Xcel signed a &#34;milestone strategic alliance agreement&#34; with GE Vernova, which includes the purchase of five F-class power generation turbines. Notably, these turbines are not included in the 83 gigawatts of backlog orders announced on January 28, indicating that new orders are still continuously flowing in.
<h2>AI Data Centers as Demand Engines</h2>
The accelerated growth in electricity demand is driven by energy-intensive AI data centers. These facilities' need for stable, large-scale power supply is fueling a surge in the expansion of traditional power infrastructure
Gas turbines, due to their ability to provide stable baseload power, have become key equipment supporting AI infrastructure. Compared to the intermittency of renewable energy, gas power generation can provide 24-hour uninterrupted power supply, which is crucial for data center operations.
Market tensions are everywhere. Power company Maxim Power is willing to lock in capacity and pay deposits four years in advance, reflecting power producers' concerns about future supply shortages. Customers are shifting from passive waiting to actively seizing manufacturing slots.
<h2>Significant Increase in Profit Expectations</h2>
The supply-demand imbalance is translating into pricing power advantages. Higher demand may lead to higher pricing, thereby enhancing profit levels. Wall Street's profit expectations for GE Vernova have doubled over the past year, with EBITDA expected to reach approximately $17 billion by 2030, a significant increase from the previous year's expectation of about $9 billion.
Stock performance confirms market confidence. At the close on Monday, GE Vernova's stock price rose 2.87% for the day, and has increased 102% over the past 12 months. On the same day, the S&amp;P 500 index rose 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat.
As a dual beneficiary of energy transition and AI infrastructure construction, GE Vernova is experiencing a rare economic cycle. When customers need to pay deposits in advance for deliveries five years out, the supplier's position in the supply chain is evident

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AI data centers are driving up electricity demand, and GE Vernova's gas turbine production capacity is in crisis, triggering a "booking war." Customers are required to pay a non-refundable deposit in advance for delivery in 2030, highlighting the seller's strong position with a "reserve first, negotiate later" approach. The company's stock price has soared over 500% since the split, and Wall Street has doubled its 2030 profit forecast to $17 billion, as the energy equipment giant enters a rare boom cycle

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Stuck in the "AI power supply bottleneck"! "Gas turbine giant" GE Vernova's stock price hits a new high, having risen over 500% since the beginning of 2024