According to "Qianzhan," brokerages expect Standard Chartered's pre-tax profit to rise by over 17% last year, focusing on future strategies and tangible return on equity
Standard Chartered (02888.HK) will announce its full-year results for the year ending December last year on the 24th of this month. Driven by improvements in Hong Kong interbank offered rates and no significant issues in credit business, our website has compiled predictions from 8 brokerages, estimating that Standard Chartered's 2025 reported pre-tax profit will be between USD 6.966 billion and USD 7.526 billion, an increase of 15.8% to 25.1% compared to USD 6.014 billion in 2024, with a median of USD 7.081 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.7%.
According to predictions from 7 brokerages, Standard Chartered's reported profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for 2025 is expected to be between USD 4.517 billion and USD 5.034 billion, up 25.7% to 40.1% from USD 3.593 billion in 2024, with a median of USD 4.693 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 30.6%. The same 7 brokerages predict that Standard Chartered's basic operating income for 2025 will be between USD 20.797 billion and USD 21.081 billion, an increase of 5.6% to 7% compared to USD 19.696 billion in 2024, with a median of USD 21.001 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. Our website has compiled predictions from 7 brokerages estimating that Standard Chartered's dividend per share for 2025 will be between USD 0.44 and USD 0.53, up from USD 0.37 per share in 2025, representing an increase of 18.9% to 43.2%. The median is USD 0.47, indicating a year-on-year increase of 27%.
Recently, Standard Chartered announced the immediate departure of Chief Financial Officer Diego De Giorgi, which surprised the market as De Giorgi played a key role in the bank's transformation in recent years. Attention will be focused on his succession plan and the company's future strategy. Investors will pay attention to Standard Chartered Group's tangible equity return performance, the latest operational and shareholder return outlook, and the recent momentum in wealth management and market business revenues.
【Morgan Stanley expects a slowdown in wealth management and market business growth at the end of last year】
Morgan Stanley predicts that Standard Chartered's reported pre-tax profit for last year increased by 17% to USD 7.03 billion, with profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rising by 31% to USD 4.69 billion, and basic operating income increasing by 6% to USD 20.8 billion. It is expected that net interest income will decrease by 0.9% to USD 10.997 billion, with a net interest margin maintained at 1.4%. Non-interest income is estimated to be USD 9.801 billion, up 13.9% year-on-year, while operating expenses are expected to rise by 4% to USD 12.23 billion, and provisions are anticipated to increase by 38% to USD 770 million. The annual dividend is expected to rise by 19% to 44 cents, with share buybacks estimated at USD 1.3 billion, and the target for tangible equity return in 2026 is expected to exceed 13%. The bank does not anticipate any significant credit quality issues for Standard Chartered, and costs in the fourth quarter are expected to rise due to year-end factors. The bank expects a quarterly slowdown in wealth management and market business revenues, while net interest income is expected to rise quarter-on-quarter, driven by continued deposit growth and a 1-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate increase of 1.15 basis points Citi predicts that Standard Chartered's reported benchmark pre-tax profit will increase by 25% year-on-year to USD 7.53 billion, profit attributable to ordinary shareholders will rise by 40% to USD 5.03 billion, reported benchmark revenue will grow by 7% to USD 21 billion, reported benchmark expenses will increase by 2% to USD 12.73 billion, reported benchmark provisions will rise by 44% to USD 790 million, and the annual dividend will increase by 33% to 50 cents. The bank previously lowered its earnings per share forecast for Standard Chartered from last year to 2027, reflecting increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, as well as the issuance of an additional USD 1 billion fixed-rate 7% Additional Tier 1 capital instrument (AT1) last November, which can only partially offset the assumed losses from corporate and investment banking loans.
Goldman Sachs believes that investors will focus on the dynamics and sustainability of Standard Chartered's wealth management income and total assets under management, as well as potential revisions to the tangible equity return guidance. The bank pointed out that Standard Chartered's tangible equity return for the first three quarters of last year reached 16.5%, significantly exceeding the bank's target of about 13% for this year. Based on such strong performance, the bank expects Standard Chartered to raise its tangible equity return guidance to around 14% when announcing its results, with the bank's related forecast being 14.1%, reflecting a normalization after the peak in the first three quarters of last year, but still supported by the continued strong growth of the wealth management sector. Goldman Sachs predicts that Standard Chartered's profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the entire year will likely increase by 31% year-on-year to USD 4.718 billion, and the reported benchmark pre-tax profit for the entire year is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to USD 7.137 billion, with basic operating income expected to increase by 7% year-on-year to USD 21.001 billion, and the annual dividend per share expected to rise by 27% year-on-year to 47 cents.
Shenwan Hongyuan published a report at the end of December last year stating that since 2023, benefiting from Standard Chartered's stable profit recovery and extremely high total return rate (dividend yield + buyback yield) catalyst, Standard Chartered's stock price has accumulated a rise of over 250%. However, the valuation still has a 13% discount compared to HSBC (previously HSBC's ROTE was higher, and the market gave it a premium). The bank indicated that it is necessary to observe whether the disadvantage of Standard Chartered's ROTE (return on tangible equity) compared to HSBC will narrow in the next three years, while the advantage of total return rate will widen, thus driving the valuation level to a higher stage. Currently, Standard Chartered's ROTE has risen to 16.5% (11.7% for 2024), higher than the official guidance of 13% for the entire year, primarily due to high non-interest contributions and long-term low credit costs. Looking ahead, considering the higher non-interest proportion, stable low credit costs, and steadily improving cost-to-income ratio, combined with maximum hedging against the impact of interest rate cuts, the bank believes that ROTE will remain relatively stable. Goldman Sachs expects Standard Chartered may raise its tangible equity return for this year to 14%, and the bank estimates that Standard Chartered's tangible equity return for 2025 and 2026 will be 14.7% and 14.1%, respectively, with Standard Chartered's current 2026 price-to-book ratio valuation being 1.2 times, compared to Barclays' expected HSBC tangible equity returns of 16.6% for both 2025 and 2026, and the forecast price-to-book ratio valuation for this year being 1.7 times ----------------------------------------------
According to a comprehensive forecast from 8 brokerages, Standard Chartered's 2025 reported pre-tax profit is expected to be between USD 6.966 billion and USD 7.526 billion, compared to USD 6.014 billion in 2024, an annual increase of 15.8% to 25.1%, with a median of USD 7.081 billion, an annual increase of 17.7%.
Brokerage│2025 Reported Pre-Tax Profit Forecast│Annual Change
Citigroup│USD 7.526 billion│+25.1%
Bank of America Securities│USD 7.162 billion│+19.1%
Goldman Sachs│USD 7.137 billion│+18.7%
Barclays│USD 7.130 billion│+18.6%
Morgan Stanley│USD 7.031 billion│+16.9%
Shenwan Hongyuan│USD 7.026 billion│+16.8%
CICC│USD 7.016 billion│+16.7%
UBS│USD 6.966 billion│+15.8%
Based on Standard Chartered's 2024 reported pre-tax profit of USD 6.014 billion.
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According to a comprehensive forecast from 7 brokerages, Standard Chartered's 2025 reported profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be between USD 4.517 billion and USD 5.034 billion, compared to USD 3.593 billion in 2024, an annual increase of 25.7% to 40.1%, with a median of USD 4.693 billion, an annual increase of 30.6%.
Brokerage│2025 Reported Profit Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders Forecast│Annual Change
Citigroup│USD 5.034 billion│+40.1%
Bank of America Securities│USD 4.725 billion│+31.5%
Goldman Sachs│USD 4.718 billion│+31.3%
Morgan Stanley│USD 4.693 billion│+30.6%
Barclays│USD 4.690 billion│+30.5%
Shenwan Hongyuan│USD 4.610 billion│+28.3%
CICC│USD 4.517 billion│+25.7%
Based on Standard Chartered's 2024 reported profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of USD 3.593 billion.
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According to a comprehensive forecast from 7 brokerages, Standard Chartered's 2025 operating income for basic performance is expected to be between USD 20.797 billion and USD 21.081 billion, compared to USD 19.696 billion in 2024, an annual increase of 5.6% to 7%, with a median of USD 21.001 billion, an annual increase of 6.6%.
Brokerage│Basic Performance Operating Income Forecast│Annual Change
Shenwan Hongyuan│USD 21.081 billion│+7% Huatai Securities │ $21.034 billion │ +6.8%
CICC │ $21.008 billion │ +6.7%
Goldman Sachs │ $21.001 billion │ +6.6%
Bank of America Securities │ $20.904 billion │ +6.1%
UBS │ $20.815 billion │ +5.7%
Morgan Stanley │ $20.797 billion │ +5.6%
Based on the company's projected operating income of $19.696 billion for 2024.
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According to a comprehensive forecast from 7 brokerages, Standard Chartered's dividend per share for 2025 is expected to be between $0.44 and $0.53, an increase of 18.9% to 43.2% compared to the $0.37 dividend per share in 2025. The median is $0.47, representing a year-on-year increase of 27%.
Brokerage │ 2025 Dividend Per Share Forecast │ Year-on-Year Change
Bank of America Securities │ $0.53 │ +43.2%
Citigroup │ $0.498 │ +34.6%
CICC │ $0.49 │ +32.4%
Barclays │ $0.47 │ +27%
Goldman Sachs │ $0.47 │ +27%
Shenwan Hongyuan │ $0.45 │ +21.6%
Morgan Stanley │ $0.44 │ +18.9%
Based on the company's previous year's dividend per share of $0.37
