The head of Microsoft's artificial intelligence business issued the most aggressive automation warning to date, stating that the vast majority of white-collar professional jobs could be replaced by AI within a year and a half, a timeline that is much earlier than the general expectations of the business community and policymakers, ringing alarm bells for the global labor market.
Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, stated in an interview with the Financial Times that professionals engaged in computer office work, such as lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketers, will see &#34;most of their tasks&#34; fully automated by AI in the next 12 to 18 months.
The unemployment caused by AI has already begun to show signs. According to a report from the job placement company Challenger, 7,624 jobs were cut due to AI in January of this year, accounting for 7% of the total layoffs that month; for the entire year of 2025, AI-related layoff announcements reached 54,836 people. Since tracking began in 2023, 79,449 planned layoffs have been attributed to AI.
Meanwhile, the risks of AI safety and abuse are also accelerating. Anthropic warned in its latest disruption report that its Claude model is more sensitive to &#34;harmful misuse&#34; in specific computer usage scenarios, even showing risk signals related to the development of chemical weapons.
<h2>There is a 12 to 18-month window for AI to massively replace white-collar jobs</h2>
Suleyman's prediction marks the most aggressive judgment from the tech industry regarding the timeline for AI to replace human jobs. He stated that AI will achieve human-level performance on &#34;most, if not all&#34; professional tasks within the next 12-18 months, primarily focused on white-collar jobs that require sitting in front of a computer.
This warning is not an isolated case. The issue of large-scale labor replacement is troubling governments around the world, although the actual number of unemployed remains unclear amid broader economic headwinds.
The Challenger report shows that the presence of AI in layoff narratives is increasing: in January 2026 alone, 7,624 layoffs were attributed to AI, accounting for 7% of the total that month. On an annual basis, AI-related announced layoffs for 2025 are 54,836.
&#34;It is difficult to say how much impact AI specifically has on layoffs,&#34; Challenger stated, &#34;We know leaders are talking about AI, and many companies want to implement it in their operations; the market seems to reward those companies that mention it.&#34;
<h2>White-collar workers are training their &#34;replacements&#34;</h2>
A concrete case of labor replacement is emerging. The Wall Street Journal reported that a Bay Area startup, Mercor, &#34;quietly hired tens of thousands of white-collar contractors,&#34; many of whom are highly qualified professionals in fields such as medicine, law, finance, engineering, writing, and the arts, with the task of training the AI systems that may replace them in the future.
The report stated that these contractors typically earn between $45 and $250 per hour, reviewing and rewriting model outputs over weeks or months, providing training support for companies including OpenAI and Anthropic
For the market, this model demonstrates the short-term demand for &#34;data labeling and feedback labor&#34; in the AI industry chain, but it also reinforces the issues of compensation structure and employment stability brought about by long-term substitution logic.
<h2>There are Discrepancies in Impact Rhythm</h2>
Not all analysts agree with such a rapid substitution timeline. Morgan Stanley stated, &#34;The impact of AI may take longer to manifest in economic data,&#34; and the first undeniable impact may come in &#34;the latter part of this decade and the next decade.&#34;
&#34;While the pace of AI adoption may be faster than past technologies, we believe it is still too early to see it in economic data, aside from business investment,&#34; said Stephen Byrd, head of global thematic research and sustainability research at the firm, to clients.
<h2>Anthropic CEO Lists Six Major AI Risks</h2>
Last month, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei issued a comprehensive warning about AI, according to Axios, listing the following risks:
<blockquote>
Mass Unemployment: &#34;I also believe that AI will disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within 1 to 5 years, while we may have AI that is more capable than anyone else in just 1 to 2 years.&#34;
AI with National-Level Power: He envisions a &#34;genius nation&#34; emerging somewhere in the world around 2027, with a population of 50 million, &#34;where everyone is more capable than any Nobel laureate, politician, or technical expert.&#34; He considers this &#34;perhaps the most serious national security threat in a century, if not in history.&#34;
Rising Terrorism Threats: Amodei stated, &#34;Biology is so far the area I am most concerned about,&#34; due to its potential for destruction and difficulty in defense. With advancements in biology, it may be possible to &#34;conduct more selective attacks (for example, targeting specific lineages),&#34; increasing &#34;another very chilling possible motive.&#34; He believes &#34;the risk of significant attacks occurring, with casualties potentially reaching millions or more, is very serious over the accumulation of hundreds of thousands of people and years.&#34;
Empowering Authoritarians: Governments around the world will have access to this technology. Amodei bluntly stated, &#34;AI-enabled authoritarianism terrifies me.&#34;
Risks from AI Companies Themselves: &#34;It's a bit awkward for me to say this as a CEO of an AI company, but I think the next level of risk is actually the AI companies themselves,&#34; Amodei warned after discussing authoritarian governments. AI companies control large data centers, train cutting-edge models, and possess the greatest expertise on how to use these models, interacting daily with tens of millions or even billions of users and potentially influencing them. &#34;For example, they might use AI products to brainwash their vast consumer user base, and the public should be wary of this risk.&#34;
Temptation for the Powerful to Remain Silent: AI giants possess so much power and money that leaders will be tempted to downplay the risks. &#34;The money that can be made from AI is too much—literally trillions of dollars each year,&#34; Amodei wrote, &#34;and that is the trap: AI is so powerful, such an enticing prize, that human civilization finds it difficult to impose any constraints on it.&#34;
He called on &#34;the rich to have an obligation to help solve this problem&#34; and expressed sadness over &#34;many wealthy individuals (especially in the tech industry) recently adopting a cynical and nihilistic attitude, believing that charity is a fraud or useless.&#34;
</blockquote>

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Microsoft AI head issues "most aggressive warning": Most white-collar jobs such as lawyers and accountants may be replaced by AI within 18 months, and there is still disagreement in the market regarding the pace of impact. The Wall Street Journal reports that Mercor employs a large number of white-collar workers to provide training support for large models, and white-collar workers are actively training this "replacement." Anthropic CEO has listed six major AI risk factors, including mass unemployment and AI possessing national-level power

- Microsoft's AI business head has warned that most white-collar jobs could be automated within 12 to 18 months, far sooner than business and policymakers expect.  
- The recent Challenger report indicates that AI-related job layoffs have begun, with over 7,600 jobs attributed to AI in January 2026 alone.  
- AI's potential to displace workers raises significant concerns about unemployment and the long-term impacts on job stability and compensation structures.

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Escalating AI Panic! Microsoft Executive: Most white-collar jobs will be fully automated in the "next 12-18 months"